Yesterday I saw that BTC shot up to $71,600 after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, and oil plummeted by 16% to $95. On paper, it looks bullish — the CoinDesk 20 rose 4.2%, altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin. But I wonder why crypto isn't rising even more today, because this seems more like a relief rally than genuine demand.

The short term looks okay: BTC broke its 50-day moving average and is targeting $76,100. Morgan Stanley launched its Bitcoin ETF with strong volumes, suggesting institutional inflows. But look at the details — of those $431 million in liquidated shorts in 24 hours (, the largest since March ), many traders were betting on escalation and are now panic selling. That’s not sustainable demand, that’s short-covering.

The real problem: this ceasefire is temporary, not a permanent solution. Oil is still $30 higher than before February 28. Until Hormuz truly normalizes and insurance premiums drop, oil could stay around the $100 level. And that keeps risky assets like crypto in check. So why isn’t crypto falling more today? Probably because everyone is waiting for the next signal. The animal spirits are back, but not really at home.