Bitcoin retraces 40%, triggering "four-year cycle panic"; K33: Deep bear markets are unlikely to recur, and long-term buying opportunities have emerged.

Bitcoin has recently continued to decline, sparking market concerns about the reemergence of the four-year cycle. However, the K33 report indicates that the likelihood of a deep bear market replay is low, and current prices remain attractive to long-term investors.
(Background: Data shows that the main sellers of Bitcoin are trapped holders, with buyers quietly accumulating 450,000 BTC at the 70,000–80,000 range)
(Additional context: Big short Michael Burry warns that a Bitcoin crash could trigger a “collateral death spiral” that drags down the gold and silver markets)

Table of Contents

• Bitcoin Pullback Sparks Cycle Fears
• Structural Differences: “This Time Is Different”
• Early Bottom Signals Appear, but Caution Is Still Needed

Bitcoin has recently been pulling back, reigniting fears of a repeat of the classic four-year cycle. However, the well-known research and brokerage firm K33’s latest report points out that although there are unsettling similarities in price movements, the current environment is vastly different, making a crash of over 80% unlikely this time.

Bitcoin Pullback Sparks Cycle Fears

Since the October 2025 high, Bitcoin has fallen about 40%, and last week, it declined 11% in a single week amid rising global risk aversion. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, stated in a February report that this selling pressure resembles the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022. He noted that market behavior, rather than fundamentals, is driving the price volatility, fueling concerns about the reemergence of the four-year cycle pattern.

The four-year cycle theory has long been viewed as Bitcoin’s “metronome,” with bull-bear transitions roughly every four years following halving events. However, recent price lows, combined with long-term holders reducing their positions and new capital waiting on the sidelines, have led to increasing selling pressure, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy similar to past bear markets.

“This Time Is Different”: Structural Differences

Despite the surface similarities, Lunde emphasizes that the current market environment is very different from previous cycles. First, institutional adoption has increased significantly, including billions of dollars flowing into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), expanded advisory investment channels, and multiple banks launching crypto-related services. Second, the interest rate environment is more accommodative, lacking the forced deleveraging seen during the 2022 credit crisis.

Lunde mentioned that as early as October 2025, he declared “the four-year cycle is dead, long live the king,” believing that institutionalization and regulatory tailwinds have ushered Bitcoin into a new structural phase. He explicitly states that a 80% deep correction is unlikely because systemic risks that could amplify losses are absent.

Early Bottom Signals Appear, but Caution Is Still Needed

The report also highlights that some common bottom indicators are showing positive signs. On February 2, Bitcoin spot trading volume exceeded $8 billion; derivatives market positions and funding rates both entered extreme negative territory, accompanied by approximately $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Such combinations have historically been associated with price reversals.

Lunde believes that, as long as Bitcoin maintains its support levels, these signals suggest a bottom may be forming. However, he also warns that such extreme conditions have previously appeared during false breakouts or mid-range consolidations, and genuine reversals typically require more extreme volume. The key support level is around $74,000; if broken, it could accelerate a decline toward the November 2021 high of $69,000 or even further to the 200-week moving average at $58,000.

Lunde concludes by emphasizing that over the past two years, Bitcoin’s returns have been nearly flat, and long-term holders are under no urgent selling pressure. If support holds, current levels could present an attractive entry point for long-term investors.