2025 年第四季度，比特币和以太坊未能迎来市场期待的年底反弹，“圣诞行情”正式告吹，凸显出在流动性不足与风险偏好下降背景下，加密货币上涨动能的脆弱性。进入 12 月下旬后，比特币多次尝试收复关键价位，但均遭遇明显抛压，以太坊及其他市值较大的主流代币同步走弱。
数据显示，根据 CoinGlass 统计，比特币在 12 月底的累计跌幅约为 22%，有望成为自 2018 年 12 月以来表现最差的一个月；以太坊在 2025 年第四季度的跌幅预计达到 28.07%。这一表现与过往年底通常出现的上涨行情形成鲜明对比。
所谓“圣诞行情”，通常指 12 月最后一周至 1 月初，由流动性收缩、年底资产配置调整以及节日情绪带动的价格上涨。但今年的走势更像是仓位削减和风险回避，而非新一轮加密牛市的起点。历史上，加密市场往往依赖年底资金流入为新周期奠定基础，而本轮走势未能复制这一模式。
从宏观层面看，比特币在第四季度的快速回落反映的是避险情绪升温，而非风险偏好扩张。这一点与贵金属市场形成对照。在降息预期和地缘政治不确定性推动下，黄金、白银和铂金价格相继创出新高，黄金在央行持续购入和 ETF 资金配置增加的支撑下，进一步巩固了避险资产地位。
相比之下，比特币的交易行为更接近高贝塔风险资产。即便宏观环境偏向宽松，如果缺乏广泛的风险情绪支撑，比特币价格仍难以持续上行。2025 年末的市场反复验证了这一点：每次反弹后迅速出现获利了结，假期期间杠杆率下降，而美国交易时段往往成为集中抛售窗口。
收益率波动与美元震荡，使投资者更倾向于保本配置，这对黄金更为有利，而对比特币等投机性资产构成压力。接下来，市场的关键观察点在于比特币能否守住当前技术支撑位。如果失守，本次圣诞行情的失败，或将被视为加密市场在下一轮持续上涨前仍需经历更深层调整的重要信号。
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