Wintermute:加密市场能量积聚但方向未明,或将出现突发性行情

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Gate News 消息,3 月 31 日,Wintermute 发文表示,为期四周的局势缓和窗口期即将结束,而问题仍无解决迹象。布伦特原油价格高于 112 美元,霍尔木兹海峡实际上已关闭,加息概率不断攀升。Wintermute 认为,风险资产的宏观上限低于一个月前,这使得比特币价格难以持续维持在 7 万美元以上。3 月 27 日期权到期日不仅清除了 140 亿美元的风险敞口,还消除了曾使现货价格围绕关键行权价区间波动的德尔塔对冲资金流。Wintermute 指出,在没有这种被动买卖盘提供支撑结构的情况下,市场更容易因资金流动减少而出现单边走势。再加上比特币和以太坊的负 ETF 资金流,以及永续合约杠杆率虽高但在周期低波动率下无明确方向,Wintermute 认为这样的市场格局不会缓慢演变,而是会突然爆发。Wintermute 进一步分析,若外交方面取得可信进展,且油价回落至 100 美元左右,那么空头将面临被逼仓的风险,比特币价格可能反弹至 7 万至 7.4 万美元区间。若局势缓和持续,7.4 万美元的阻力位或将受到考验。反之,若局势进一步升级,油价推升至 120 美元,比特币价格则可能跌至 6 万美元出头,若周期走势类似,甚至可能跌至 5 万至 5.5 万美元区间。Wintermute 强调,永续合约杠杆率较高,资金费率在有记录以来最窄的区间内波动,且波动率波动正在压缩。无论催化剂朝哪个方向发力,市场结构都表明,由此产生的行情波动幅度将远超现货、永续合约和期权当前定价所反映的水平。

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