「BTC OG内幕巨鲸」代理人:复活节周末或为美伊冲突升级窗口期,原油将突破120美元/桶

BTC1,41%

BlockBeats 消息,3 月 29 日,「BTC OG 内幕巨鲸」代理人 Garrett Jin 发文表示,「复活节周末(4 月 5 日至 6 日)被认为是美国全面升级对伊朗行动的最可能时间窗口。时间表、政治因素和军事部署都指向这一节点。如果不是那时,也只是时间问题。若冲突升级发生:美以将发动空地联合打击;国会休会、欧洲市场休市,等伦敦周二开盘时,世界格局可能已改变。

一旦开战的连锁反应:霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭(保险失效即无航运);布伦特原油突破 120 美元/桶;美国 10 年期国债收益率升至 4.6% 以上;几周内,全球债市或蒸发 2.5 万亿美元;银行体系未实现损失接近 2022 年危机水平;冲突无明确停火路径。

美联储将面临困境,控制通胀(需加息)、防范银行危机(需降息)、为战争融资(需压低利率)三者不可兼得。历史经验显示,战争时期往往牺牲通胀目标。美联储将维持利率约 3.5%–3.75%,通过隐性流动性与监管工具实施「金融压制」,使实际利率转负,以侵蚀债务。

名义上股市可能上涨,但实际购买力下降。能源、军工和大宗商品将跑赢;科技与消费板块面临重估。战争不是解决债务问题的方法,而是债务问题的体现。真正的风险不在战场,而在债券市场——当国债拍卖需求减弱,体系将面临根本性变化。」

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