据 XWIN Research Japan 分享的一份分析报告显示，如果美联储在下月备受瞩目的会议上选择不降息，比特币可能会在 12 月底之前一直被困在狭窄的交易区间内。
12 月的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议有望成为近年来最难以预测的会议之一。由于美国政府停摆迫使劳工统计局取消了 10 月份的就业报告，并推迟了 10 月和 11 月的数据发布，政策制定者将在信息不明朗的情况下参加此次会议。
此前，美联储官员对降息的预期一度远高于 70%，但如今已跌至 40% 至 50% 的区间，美联储会议纪要显示，委员会内部存在严重分歧。暂停降息将表明，在通胀率徘徊在 3% 左右且关键劳动力市场指标仍然缺失的情况下，美联储对放松货币政策持谨慎态度。
从历史上看，紧缩的货币环境会消耗风险资产的流动性，这种模式在本月初就已经出现，当时降息预期下降引发了股市和加密货币的大幅下跌。比特币立即做出反应。
随着降息可能性降低，比特币价格跌破 9 万美元，抹去了数周的涨幅。分析师表示，如果美联储在 12 月份保持谨慎，同样的趋势可能会再次发生，在流动性不足的环境下，杠杆头寸将变得更加脆弱。
然而，表面之下，反弹的动力依然存在。根据 XWIN 分享的图表，交易所的稳定币储备已攀升至 722 亿美元的历史新高。2025 年的每一次重大上涨都始于类似的流动性积累，市场等待宏观经济发出绿灯。如果降息未能实现，XWIN 预计比特币价格将在年底前盘整在 6 万美元至 8 万美元之间。
下行压力来自疲软的风险偏好，而上行空间在美联储政策明朗化之前仍然有限。关键问题在于，一旦12月的政策风险消退，稳定币储备是继续闲置还是开始转向比特币。（Cryptonews）
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