2026-03-15 14:36:35

Circle Position Liquidation Record and Reason Analysis

Trading Operations:
Liquidated Circle positions in two batches at prices of 83 and 112.

Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views):
1. Disconnect between narrative and reality:
Circle's recent rally was driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payment business is still in a very early stage. The issuance volume of stablecoin USDC being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume is impossible without 2-3 years. What's being traded now is just optimistic expectations about AI.

2. Market positioning limitations:
Stablecoin payments are only a niche market for AI Agents. Stablecoin payments will mainly be used in cross-border scenarios, while for AI Agents, local payment scenarios are the biggest opportunity. The most rational way for local payments is to be completed by combining fiat currency + local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the primary problem being solved currently.

3. Overvaluation:
Circle's current market cap has reached $28 billion, but compared to net profits of over $100 million per year, it's too expensive. I personally believe the current price already reflects the valuation at 10x issuance volume growth of USDC.

USDC-0,02%

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