Cục Dự trữ Liên bang giữ nguyên lãi suất? Dữ liệu việc làm tháng 1 tiết lộ sự thật về thị trường lao động

【Block Rhythm】Recently, federal officials have written analyses on the latest employment report, pointing out that December’s data has given the Federal Reserve sufficient reason to remain cautious this month. Specifically, nonfarm payroll increased by only 50,000, which is a rather weak performance. More notably, the private sector’s three-month average hiring has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest of the year.

These figures reflect not just temporary fluctuations, but the emergence of a new trend in the 2025 labor market——“slow hiring, slow layoffs as well.” Companies are contracting, but the magnitude is not significant, with the entire market in a cautious and watchful state.

However, the unemployment rate has not continued to rise, temporarily alleviating market concerns about rapid deterioration in the labor market. It was precisely the concerns about employment prospects in the preceding months that drove the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times consecutively. Now the market has essentially reached a consensus: the Federal Reserve will likely pause rate cuts at its January 27-28 meeting and maintain its holding pattern. That said, the weakness in hiring data also means that discussions surrounding whether the labor market is truly healthy are far from over.