Don't be fooled by the rebound! Bitcoin may retest the lows at any time | Special Analysis

Original Title: Don’t Be Fooled by the Rebound! Bitcoin Could Retest Lows at Any Time | Special Guest Analysis

Original Author: Cody

Original Source:

Reposted by: Daisy, Mars Finance

Market analyst Conaldo holds a Master’s in Financial Statistics from Columbia University, USA. Since college, he has focused on quantitative trading in US stocks and gradually expanded into digital assets such as Bitcoin. Through practical experience, he has developed a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system; he possesses keen data insight into market fluctuations and is committed to deepening his expertise in professional trading, pursuing steady returns. Every week, he will delve into BTC technicals, macro trends, and capital flows, review and showcase actionable strategies, and preview major upcoming events worth attention for reference.

Core Summary of Weekly Trading Report: Last week’s trades strictly followed the predetermined strategy, successfully completing two short-term operations for a cumulative return of 6.93%. The following will review market forecasts, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.

I. Bitcoin Market Review Last Week (12.01–12.07)

1. Review of Core Views and Trading Strategies Last Week:

In last week’s journal, I clearly stated: Use $89,000 as the dividing line for bulls and bears and formulated corresponding strategies accordingly, as reviewed below:

① Market Trend Forecast Review: Regard $89,000 as the short-term key watershed. If it holds as support, the price may rebound upwards; if it is broken, a downward move to test the lows will begin.

Key Resistance Levels:

First resistance zone: $94,000–$96,500

Second resistance zone: $98,500–$100,000

Key Support Levels:

First support: Around $89,000

Second support: $85,500–$88,000

Major support: Around $80,500

② Strategy Review:

Mid-term strategy: Maintain around 65% mid-term short position.

Short-term strategy: All short-term operations use the $89,000 level as the final decision point, with two contingency plans:

Plan A: If $89,000 holds as support, when the price rebounds to the $94,000–$96,500 resistance zone and shows signs of stalling, establish an initial 10% short position, with a stop loss above $100,000. If the rebound extends to around $98,500 and stalls again, add another 20% short, with a unified stop loss above $100,000.

Plan B: If the price breaks below $89,000, directly establish a 20% short position, with a stop loss near $92,000.

Unified closing rule: When the price reaches the aforementioned major support zones and shows signs of bottom resistance, partially or fully close short-term positions for profit as appropriate.

2. Two Planned Short-Term Trades Successfully Executed Last Week (Figure 1), Cumulative Return 6.93%. Details and review are as follows:

Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 1

① Trading Summary:

② First Trade (Profit 2.14%): This operation was a classic execution of Plan B. After Bitcoin effectively broke below the $89,000 key level, a decisive 20% short position was established at $87,103, and eventually closed near the second support at $84,989 for profit. This operation perfectly embodied the “follow the breakout” trading discipline.

③ Second Trade (Profit 4.44%): This was a precise execution of Plan A. After the price found support at $89,000 and rebounded, patiently waited for entry into the first resistance zone ($94,000–$96,500)). When a signal appeared at $93,321, a 10% short position was established as planned, successfully capturing the subsequent pullback and closing near $89,355 for profit.

④ Profit Summary: Last week’s strategy execution was well aligned with market movements. Both trades strictly adhered to preset entry, stop loss, and take profit rules, successfully converting market volatility into actual returns, totaling a 6.93% gain, validating the effectiveness of the previous strategic framework.

3. Key Bitcoin Data Review Last Week:

Open: $90,369

Low: $83,814 (Monday)

High: $94,172 (Wednesday)

Close: $90,405

Change: Weekly gain 0.03%, maximum amplitude 12.36%

Volume: $13.429 billion

Trend: Wide-ranging volatility, weekly K-line closed as a “doji” with upper and lower shadows

4. Actual Market Movement Review Last Week:

Last week, Bitcoin showed a typical “sharp wide-ranging volatility” pattern with many twists and turns. For the week, it closed up 0.03% with a “doji” bullish K-line featuring upper and lower shadows. Specifically, after opening on Monday, the price plunged, effectively breaking the key $89,000 support, bottoming at $83,814 before stabilizing and rebounding, with a daily loss of 4.53%. Over the next two days, the market staged a “V-shaped” reversal, with prices surging to not only recover all of Monday’s losses but also briefly touching the weekly high of $94,172. The two-day gain reached 8.18%. After midweek, the market weakened again, with the price dropping a cumulative 4.45% over two days before entering a narrow range until the weekend. Notably, the midweek high of $94,172 closely matched the lower bound of the first resistance zone ($94,000–$96,500) predicted last week, differing by only $172. This once again validated the accuracy of the previous key resistance level judgment.

II. Systematic Technical Analysis: Multi-Model and Multi-Dimensional Synthesis

Considering last week’s market action, I will utilize multi-dimensional analysis models to deeply dissect the evolution of Bitcoin’s internal structure.

Weekly Chart Level:

Figure 2

1. As shown in (Figure 2), weekly chart analysis:

Momentum Quantitative Model: After last week’s movement, both momentum lines continued downward, with the white momentum line having crossed below zero for three weeks and the blue line about to cross below zero. After two weeks of oversold rebound, the negative momentum bars began to shrink compared to previous weeks. Bulls must now organize a strong counterattack to pull both momentum lines back above zero; otherwise, bears will unleash greater downward pressure.

Momentum Quantitative Model Signals: Price downtrend index—high

Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line at 52.08, strength zero; yellow sentiment line at 33.53, strength zero, peak value 0.

Sentiment Quantitative Model Signals: Price pressure and support index—neutral

Digital Monitoring Model: No digital signals currently displayed.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is in a downtrend, weekly chart level is about to enter a bear market.

Daily Chart Level:

Figure 3

2. As shown in (Figure 3), daily chart analysis:

Momentum Quantitative Model: After a week of rebound, both momentum lines are moving upward below zero and gradually approaching zero, but the momentum bars are gradually shrinking compared to previous days.

Momentum Quantitative Model Signals: Bullish rebound momentum is gradually weakening.

Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line at 21, strength zero; yellow sentiment line at 32, strength zero.

Sentiment Quantitative Model Signals: Pressure and support index—neutral

Conclusion: Daily chart level is in a bear market, with an oversold rebound in progress but showing signs of weakening.

III. Market Forecast for This Week (12.08–12.14)

1. The price is expected to remain range-bound this week. I have divided the price into three zones: $94,200–$91,000–$87,500–$83,500. It is currently oscillating in the $91,000–$87,000 range, and the market will soon choose a direction.

2. Resistance levels: First resistance at $91,000, second resistance at $94,000–$96,500, key resistance at $98,500–$100,000.

3. Support levels: First support at $85,500–$87,500, second support at $83,500, key support near $80,000.

IV. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding Unexpected News)

1. Mid-term strategy: Maintain around 65% mid-term position (short).

2. Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop loss points, and seek “spread” opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 60-minute/240-minute timeframes).

3. Given the high probability of range-bound movement this week, I have formulated two short-term plans to adapt to market trends.

Plan A: If the market oscillates upward early week: (Sell the rebound)

Opening: If the price rebounds to the $91,000–$94,200 zone and meets resistance, establish a 15% short position.

Add: If the price continues to rebound to around $98,500 and meets resistance again, add another 15% short position.

Risk control: All shorts have stop losses above $100,000.

Reduce: After the rebound ends and the price moves downward, when it falls to the first support zone and meets resistance, close 50% of the position.

Close: If the price continues to fall to the second support zone and meets resistance, close the remaining position and complete the trade.

Plan B: If the price breaks below $87,500 early week for a deeper dip: (Buy the deep dip for a rebound)

Opening: If the price falls to the $83,500–$80,000 zone and shows a top signal, establish a 15% long position.

Risk control: Stop loss below $80,000.

Close: If the price rebounds to the $87,500–$88,000 zone and meets resistance, close all positions for profit.

V. Special Reminders:

1. When opening a position: Immediately set an initial stop loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the entry price (break-even), ensuring capital safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to lock in 1% profit.

4. Dynamic tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move the stop loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in existing gains.

(Note: The 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors based on their risk appetite and the volatility of the asset.)

VI. Macro and Capital Flow Analysis (12.8–12.14):

This week is the most critical “Super Central Bank Week” for global financial markets before year-end, with the core focus on the December Fed rate decision, dot plot update, and Powell’s speech. Although the market almost unanimously expects a rate cut at this meeting, what truly determines risk assets (including Bitcoin) is not this rate cut itself, but the Fed’s guidance on the 2025 rate cut path. Therefore, this week’s macro and capital structure will revolve around the “expectation gap,” and asset price volatility is likely to be significantly amplified.

On the macro front, key data is concentrated this week: Tuesday’s US JOLTs job openings will reveal the extent of labor market cooling; if it continues to weaken, it will strengthen the logic for early rate cuts. Wednesday’s China CPI and total social financing will determine Asian demand and liquidity direction; Friday’s UK GDP and European CPI will affect global easing expectations. However, all these data are less important than the Fed meeting, and the market overall is in a “waiting for the Fed’s answer” state.

The tone of this Fed meeting is almost locked in as a “December rate cut,” but the dot plot will determine the market’s direction for the next 3–6 months. If the dot plot is hawkish, suggesting only 0–1 rate cuts in 2025, the market will quickly correct its current easing expectations, leading to higher US Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, risk assets under short-term pressure, and BTC may even retest the $85,000 region. If the dot plot is dovish, suggesting at least two 2025 rate cuts, it means the easing cycle could accelerate, prompting a rapid rebound in risk assets and BTC possibly challenging above $90,000 again. Powell’s speech will further sway sentiment—any emphasis on “sticky inflation” or “policy still needs to remain restrictive” will amplify short-term volatility.

On the capital flow front, the market is overall in a compressed state with no clear direction. BTC failed to reclaim $90,000 over the weekend, but trading volume decreased significantly, indicating slower turnover, stable retail sentiment, and no panic selling. Institutional funds generally chose to reduce risk exposure before “Super Central Bank Week,” so there was no significant increase or exit last week—a typical “pre-FOMC lull.” The macro environment itself has no new negative factors—US jobs and inflation data continue to weaken, actually increasing the probability of entering an easing cycle mid-term, which is also why BTC can maintain strong volatility at high levels.

Overall, the core variable for BTC this week is not sentiment or liquidity, but whether the Fed provides rate cut guidance in line with market expectations. Bullish factors include: high probability of a December rate cut, continued cooling in jobs and inflation, and a high likelihood of a dovish new Fed chair—all supporting further easing in 2025. Risks mainly lie in a hawkish dot plot, hawkish Powell comments, or a decrease in January rate cut expectations, which could weaken short-term sentiment.

In summary, this week is a key window for determining the trend of risk assets in 2025. The Fed’s dot plot and stance will directly affect the medium-term trend of BTC. If guidance is dovish, the market may see a year-end rally; if hawkish, there may be a short-term pullback, but it will not change the medium-term bullish structure. For BTC, this week’s volatility is not just about short-term price changes, but a repricing of future trends.