#ETH走势分析 $BTC [Trading Perspective] Let Technicals Speak, Risk Management Comes First

Looking at Ethereum at noon on December 7: Can the Fusaka upgrade withstand the pressure of ETF outflows this time?

First, the good news on the technical side—after the official activation of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, the settlement efficiency of Layer 2 has visibly improved, and node costs have come down. The data is clear: network TVL has rebounded by 15%, and small wallet activity has surged by 45%. Vitalik has also proposed a new gas fee adjustment, sparking hype in the community about a "shock to ETH supply."

But things aren’t as optimistic on the capital side. Last Friday saw a single-day ETF net outflow of $75.2M, and the total outflow for November has reached $1.4B, with institutions clearly on the sidelines. However, there are some contrarian moves—BlackRock bought $28.4M against the trend, and BitMine added $199M in ETH over two days, which already accounts for 3.08% of the circulating supply(, at least providing some support to the market.

There’s also some new activity in the ecosystem: Ondo Finance is launching tokenized US stock ETFs on the Ethereum chain, even covered by CNBC; in Europe, WisdomTree’s staking fund has gone live, and cross-continental capital is starting to flow in.

The price is currently at $3,052.91, down 2.8% in 24 hours, with trading volume shrinking 10.6% to $22.7B. Market cap is still holding the second spot at $368.3B, with a weak 1.1% weekly gain, but market sentiment is definitely cold)—the Fear & Greed Index is only 23(. Technical indicators show an RSI at a neutral 46.29, MACD in a death cross, and short-term pressure is high. Key support is at $3,000, with resistance above at $3,400.

Personal view: If the $3,000 support holds, the effect of the Fusaka upgrade could push the price to test the $3,900 zone. It’s recommended to watch for an annualized staking yield of 5-8%, but always set a stop loss—hawkish comments from the Fed could hit the market at any time. There are signs of institutions setting up for the long term, but in the short term, you’ll need to closely monitor ETF capital flows as the leading indicator.

⚠️ As always: this is purely personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile—make your own decisions and don’t neglect risk management. $ETH