#美联储重启降息步伐 At 3:00 a.m. on December 11, the Federal Reserve’s annual blockbuster event will finally take place.

Gold is currently stuck at a high level, unable to move up or down, and this rate decision is the lever that could tip the balance. To be honest, the market has long priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut. What really has everyone on edge is what Powell will say afterward—the real impact is hidden between the lines of his wording.

What if he takes a dovish turn? For example, if the statement says something like "cooling inflation has created room for easing," or if Powell hints that more cuts could come in 2026, then liquidity expectations will soar immediately. In that case, non-yielding assets like gold could become even more attractive, and it’s highly likely to test the 4264 level—maybe even break through previous highs and start a new chapter. $BTC $ETH Risk assets could rally along as well.

But what if he suddenly turns hawkish? If the statement includes "inflation remains sticky and needs to be watched," or if Powell directly says "let’s pause and observe the data," then all the rate-cut optimism built up earlier would instantly become a selling point. Gold prices would first look to see if 4185 can hold; if not, the key support at 4163 would be in danger, making the technical picture look pretty ugly.

The Fed meets every seven weeks, eight times a year, but the last few meetings of the year are often the riskiest. Economic forecasts need updating, policy signals need recalibrating, and global assets are all waiting for this weathervane. After moving sideways for so long, it’s time for some direction.