#数字货币市场洞察 $DOGE Dogecoin Technical Observation: Imbalance Signals in Capital Flow and Long-Short Dynamics

Based on the latest on-chain data and technical charts, DOGE’s current situation warrants caution.

Starting with the capital side: Monitoring systems show that major players have already exited, but the price hasn’t crashed significantly yet—this lag usually means retail investors are still desperately holding up the market. The ship has already turned around, are you still watching the weather vane?

Technically, it’s even clearer: the price is tightly suppressed by the EMA25 and EMA99 moving averages, with the MACD indicator lingering below the zero line. Each minor rebound is actually the prelude to another drop after failing to break resistance. In this setup, any upside simply presents an opportunity—to go short.

Sentiment data tells the story even more directly. On Bitmex, long positions account for a whopping 80.4%, extremely overcrowded; meanwhile, on Hyperliquid, shorts make up an astonishing 97%—an abnormal imbalance. When market sentiment is this polarized, price typically moves in the path of least resistance—meaning downward, to liquidate the mountain of long positions.

While there are short-term signs of technical overselling and a minor rebound may occur, this is precisely the best shorting window.

Reference levels:
Downside target range: 0.136 – 0.132 – 0.127
Risk control line: 0.1420 (If the price holds above this level, the strategy is invalidated)

At its core, market trading is a game of probabilities; we only act at high-probability points.