PCE data is out—what’s next for Bitcoin?

The just-released US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) basically met expectations, and the core PCE was also in line. While the Consumer Confidence Index isn’t the most important indicator, it still gives us some clues.

Why is this data worth watching? The logic is simple—if PCE comes in below expectations, it means inflation is cooling, making it unlikely for the Fed to continue aggressive rate hikes, and they might even turn dovish. More money in the system means risk assets like Bitcoin stand to benefit. On the other hand, if inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed will definitely tighten policy, funding costs will surge, and crypto prices will come under pressure. This time, the data was steady, and the market reaction was muted—no major spike or drop.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently oscillating upward within a channel. But don’t celebrate too soon—this is likely just a rebound after a sharp drop and doesn’t change the overall downward trend. If it breaks below channel support, slipping under 75,000 isn’t out of the question, so keep a close eye on risk.

The next two weeks are the real highlight: next week we have the Fed meeting, and the week after, the Bank of Japan may hike rates. The combination will definitely bring intense market volatility, and a wave of liquidations is highly likely. However, risk often comes with opportunity—this could be the last chance to buy the dip this year.

If you’re looking to enter, here’s a suggested approach: prioritize spot purchases, set a price range and buy in batches to average your cost and reduce risk. When the market experiences a rapid dip, consider adding to your position with a small amount of leverage. Remember, always control your contract position size, set stop-loss and take-profit orders, and don’t let a reversal wipe out your principal.

Markets are ever-changing—making rational decisions is much more important than blindly following the crowd.