Three things to keep a close eye on in the market next week.

First, let’s talk about the Fed rate cut—this is basically a done deal, a solid 25 basis points. But the issue isn’t whether they cut or not, it’s what they say afterward. Right now, the market is betting on three cuts next year, but the Fed’s previous stance was only two. If they still don’t loosen up at this meeting? That would be a classic “when the shoe finally drops, it hurts,” meaning that after the good news is out, it’s time for a drop.

The second variable is Japan. Their central bank is very likely to move in the opposite direction and tighten policy. Once they tighten, global dollars will flow into Japan. Think about it—the Fed just started easing, and then Japan tightens, so the impact of easing is largely offset. US stocks and bonds could both shake, and volatility will definitely be significant.

Now, let’s look at gold and A-shares. Once the rate cut is in place, gold could easily see a sharp short-term drop as expectations are fully priced in, but that’s actually a good thing—it creates an opportunity to position for 2026. As for A-shares, there’s a tug-of-war between internal policies and external liquidity drain, and the direction hasn’t been decided yet. We’ll have to wait for the external storm to pass before internal forces can really take charge.

So, the keyword for next week is: risk management.

Don’t chase the already-hyped concepts—all the good news has long been priced in. What you really want to do is wait for a pullback, and especially beware of a major market reversal right after the policy announcement. Take a longer view—these short-term swings are actually setting the stage for the structural opportunities in 2026. If you want to make a move, wait until there’s a big enough drop to make it worthwhile.