When everyone is shouting about the bull market’s return, there’s one chart sending the exact opposite signal—Bitcoin may still have to endure a cold winter, plunging toward $55,000.

This indicator, known as the 200-week moving average (200W MA), has always acted as the “ultimate line of defense” in Bitcoin’s history. Looking back at the 2015 crash, the 2018 bubble burst, and the 2020 pandemic plunge, the price only started to rebound each time after precisely touching this line. Currently, the market is consolidating around $90,000, while this critical moving average sits at $55,000. Doing some simple math: if history repeats itself, there’s nearly 40% downside waiting to be absorbed.

But what’s the current market sentiment? Almost everyone is caught up in FOMO, and few are willing to believe a correction is coming.

**To use a more vivid analogy**:

It’s like a group of people dancing at a packed party—the music is blaring, the alcohol is kicking in, and no one is paying attention to the “Emergency Exit” sign on the wall. When something actually happens, that green line marking the escape route (the 200-week moving average) becomes the only lifesaving way out—but by then, most people won’t even know where the door is.

**Assessing risk calmly**:

Historical patterns aren’t set in stone, but they should never be ignored. If the macro environment deteriorates or a black swan event occurs, major players will ruthlessly drive the price down to technical support levels, wiping out all the high-leverage long positions along the way. Those laughing the hardest now may end up crying the most when the market hits limit down in the future.

It’s always better to have an exit plan in advance than to be trampled in a stampede.

(This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.)