Behind LUNC’s 70% Single-Day Surge: Is the Market Betting on a 2% “Amnesty Expectation”?

[Crypto World] LUNC skyrocketed 70% in a single day, and LUNA surged 38% as well—this rally came a bit out of nowhere.

What is the market betting on? Some say it’s related to the possible pardon of a certain exchange founder who once stirred up the industry. You know, the one who went to jail because of the UST collapse.

A quick recap: In May 2022, UST lost its peg, triggering a chain reaction. LUNA went from $80 straight to zero, wiping out $45 billion in market value—one of the most brutal crashes in crypto history. Terra’s mainnet was later renamed Terra Classic, and the original native token LUNA was forced to rebrand as LUNC. The community then passed a proposal to relaunch the Terra 2.0 chain and issued a new version of the LUNA token.

Now, LUNC’s market cap is back to $342 million, and LUNA’s is at $131 million. The logic behind the pump is subtle—the founder has been vocal from prison lately, and his cellmate has already received a pardon, so the market is betting he could be next.

However, data from prediction market Polymarket remains calm: the probability of “SBF being pardoned in 2025” is still around 2%. This rally looks more like a short-term burst of speculative sentiment. After all, in the crypto market, sometimes a mere “possibility” is enough.