Warning! U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fall to Lowest Level Since 2008—Is a Recession Signal Appearing Again?

Question

[Crypto World] A Not-So-Good Signal Has Emerged.

The latest data shows that the US Leading Economic Indicators are deteriorating at an accelerating pace—the ratio of LEI to CEI has dropped to 0.85, the lowest point since the 2008 financial crisis. What’s worse, this ratio has been declining for four consecutive years.

Here’s a simple explanation of these two indicators: LEI (Leading Economic Index) looks to the future, tracking forward-looking data such as consumer confidence, new manufacturing orders, average workweek, and unemployment claims; CEI (Coincident Economic Index) reflects the present, such as how many people are currently employed. When the former significantly underperforms the latter, it means the “trailer” for the economy looks much worse than the “main feature.”

A look through historical records reveals a pattern: every time this ratio has shown such a large divergence, the US economy has basically slipped into recession. The question now is, is the market prepared to deal with it?

ShitcoinConnoisseur · Accepted Answer

0.85? That number is a bit scary... Is it happening again?

ZkProofPudding · Answer

Here we go again, the "US dollar collapse" theory for the 800th time.

RektHunter · Answer

0.85? A direct slap in the face to the "soft landing" crowd. Is 2008 going to happen all over again?

ZeroRushCaptain · Answer

Here we go again, a repeat of the mess from 2008. That 0.85 figure looks just as hopeless as my account’s return rate. Four straight years of decline? Man, this is basically giving us a reverse indicator. I bet five bucks that all the newbies buying the dip now will be down 50% in three months.

CryptoPhoenix · Answer

Remember, staying clear-headed is most important when you're losing money. This round of economic data is just building momentum for the next opportunity.

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Another day of being schooled by the market, but the phoenix always rises from the ashes. The bottom range is right in front of us.

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Everyone, don’t panic. 0.85 sounds scary, but actually, it’s a signal to start building a position.

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Four consecutive years of decline? I went through the 50% drop in 2018—this is nothing. Surviving the cycle is the real test.

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So what if a recession is here? When value returns, we’ll see who has the last laugh.

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Honestly, I’m a bit nervous, but I believe dawn will come. Patience is the hardest thing, but also the most valuable.

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We survived 2008. History always repeats itself, but smart people are quietly buying at the bottom.

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A bear market builds mentality. This is when your faith is truly tested—can you hold on?

DaoTherapy · Answer

0.85? Oh my god, this number really went back to 2008...

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Four consecutive years of decline, is it really coming this time?

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Is the Fed still sleeping?

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LEI dropped so badly, should have been prepared long ago, what are you still hesitating for

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Is it the 2008 story repeating again? Crypto folks better take cover

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The ratio broke 0.85, this time it’s not a false alarm