Did LUNA and LUNC double in 24 hours yesterday? Some say Do Kwon is about to be released? Don’t get too excited—this rally is full of hype.

Straight to the point: Emotional speculation is dominating; don’t mistake a short-term spike for a trend reversal.

**Do Kwon Released? Pure Rumor**

He has already pleaded guilty to fraud, all his assets have been confiscated, and he’s still locked up in Montenegro. The official sentencing is on December 11, with prosecutors pushing for 12 years and the defense asking for a lighter 5-year sentence. No matter the outcome, he won’t be getting out anytime soon. Even if he does get released in the future, he’ll be banned from touching the crypto industry and will have no positive impact on Terra-related projects.

**What Caused This Surge?**

A classic case of low liquidity combined with emotional hype. It started when a CoinDesk journalist wore a LUNA T-shirt, which lit the fuse for the market. Then a bunch of bullish rumors started circulating—like TFL settling with regulators and the community planning a massive token burn. The 24-hour trading volume did spike 4x, but can the capital flow last? Highly doubtful.

LUNA has a history of “skyrocketing and then crashing hard.” This rally looks more like big players using the hype to cash out.

**Can LUNA/LUNC Hit $1? The Trap Most Retail Investors Fall Into**

LUNC to $1? Forget about it. With a circulating supply of over 5.5 trillion, hitting $1 would mean a $5.5 trillion market cap—bigger than the entire crypto market. That’s simply impossible.

What about LUNA 2.0? Even though it has a lower supply than the original, its ecosystem is basically hollowed out. Multiple exchanges have reduced support, and on-chain activity has plummeted. The current price is still 100x away from $1.

**Opportunity or Trap?**

Looking at trading structure, liquidity, and narrative quality: this is a textbook short-term emotional spike, not a trend reversal. When the money’s made, it leaves—retail investors who chase the pump usually end up holding the bag. Every previous rally has been followed by a deep correction, and this time is likely no exception.

Advice for retail investors: Don’t fantasize about overnight riches, and don’t think Do Kwon’s release will revive this coin. For these kinds of “legacy assets,” the only play is ultra-short-term trading—never treat them as value investments.