The Fed has restarted rate cuts, but don’t get too excited just yet.

Many people think that rate cuts = guaranteed bull run in the crypto market, but that’s not necessarily the case. Two or three small rate cuts simply don’t inject enough liquidity to really boost traditional investment sectors like the stock market or crypto. The impact isn’t strong enough. Some aggressive capital might try out high-risk assets, but think about it—if continuous rate cuts become the norm, where will the big money go?

The answer isn’t the crypto market.

Real money will flow into the real economy or those tangible, visible opportunities at the forefront of the times. Another one or two rate cuts? Crypto’s appeal might not be able to compete with the new narratives in traditional sectors, let alone the certainty of returns from real-world assets. Why do so many institutions prefer to lock into bonds and rate hike products? Simply put, big money wants stability, not to gamble.

For this upcoming market cycle, the key is whether institutional buying power for BTC can hold up. If ETFs keep bleeding and institutions lose their appetite for buying—Q4 has already shown us this—then we might really have to wait for the next cycle.

Personally, I haven’t touched spot in quite a while. Occasionally, if I sense a rebound, I’ll open a contract, grab a quick profit, and then get out. This cycle has been really tough—altcoins haven’t made much at all, BTC is still hovering at relatively high levels, and alts have long since dropped below their issue price.