#数字货币市场洞察 Bitcoin’s recent price action has been pretty interesting, to be honest. Looking forward from the current $89,550 level, there’s actually some short-term upward momentum. Why do I say that? Let me break it down from a few angles.

First, the technicals. The price is stuck in the $88,000 to $90,000 range—this isn’t a simple zone. It’s both the launchpad for previous rebounds, and some investment banks have calculated it’s near the mining cost line. Could it drop further? There isn’t much room left to fall. Looking at indicators, on the 4-hour K-chart, the KDJ is just above 30 ((K=30.3, D=31.2)), getting close to the oversold area. Plus, the daily RSI is starting to climb from the bottom, which suggests most of the selling is done and conditions are set for a technical rebound.

Of course, just being oversold isn’t enough; the key is whether it can break through resistance. The $93,000 to $94,000 area is a real hurdle—a lot of positions were built there, and the 20-day moving average is pressing down, too. If it can break through with volume, targeting $95,000 or even $100,000 isn’t overly aggressive.

The macro environment is even more interesting. The market is now pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in December—it’s pretty much a done deal. What does a rate cut mean? Cheaper money, a weaker dollar, and more opportunities for risk assets. If you look at history, every time the Fed enters an easing cycle, Bitcoin tends to perform well.

There’s another point you can’t ignore—what institutions are doing. Traditional US banks have started allowing crypto asset allocation, and although there’s been some inflow and outflow with ETFs in the short term, cumulative net inflows have already hit $22 billion. The logic for these big players is simple: buy the dips. Short-term volatility doesn’t change their long-term strategy.

Perhaps the most exciting factor is market structure. Reportedly, there’s $3 billion worth of short positions above $96,000—that’s no small amount. If the price breaks through resistance, these shorts might be forced to cover, pushing the price even higher. The previous move from $84,000 to $92,000 played out under a similar script.

After discussing the bullish logic, let’s be clear about the risks. The $88,000 support must hold. If it breaks, the next stop could be $84,000 to $85,000. Also, while the Fed is expected to cut rates, if they turn hawkish at the same time or inflation data comes in unexpectedly hot, it could still rain on the parade.

In summary, the technicals have room for a rebound, macro liquidity expectations are in place, and there’s still the potential for a short squeeze in the market structure. In the short term, the odds are indeed tilted upward. But trading is never 100%—the key is whether it can hold support and break through resistance.