#ETH走势分析 has recently been eyeing a new development: on June 19, the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates.



What’s the probability given by the market? 74%.

That’s not a small number. If you look back at previous records, you’ll notice that every time Japan tightens its policy, the global capital flow changes along with it. Some even consider it a "harbinger of market volatility."

Why is the yen so sensitive?

Simply put, it’s too closely tied to the US dollar. In many cases, the yen’s monetary moves aren’t isolated decisions, but rather the sound of a chess piece dropping in the great power game.

There’s a subtle detail this time—some analysts believe this rate hike may have received a tacit nod from the US. On one hand, the Fed might be loosening, while on the other, the yen is tightening. The logic behind this combo is truly puzzling.

But regardless, for traders in the market, certainty is more important than predictions.

Especially at times like this, emotions can be amplified, and prices might instantly form candlesticks you never expected.

If you’re planning to buy the dip, or still holding and watching from the sidelines,
remember one thing: set your stop-loss and don’t stubbornly hold on.

One unexpected plunge could cost you more than just your account balance—it could rob you of the confidence to stay in the market.

Protecting your capital is always more practical than betting on the right direction.

Opportunities come every day. Lose your capital, and it’s truly gone. Stay steady to go further.
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SquidTeachervip
· 12-06 12:47
The Bank of Japan is making moves this time, feels like the market's about to crash. Same old story again: the Fed loosens while the yen tightens—who actually believes that? You absolutely have to set a stop loss. Last time I didn't and took a huge loss, learned that lesson the hard way. Seriously, certainty > prediction. Too many people are just talking nonsense right now. Capital is king. If your account gets wiped out, you’ve got nothing left. A 74% probability is pretty high. Gotta keep a close eye on June 19.
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GateUser-a606bf0cvip
· 12-06 04:30
This move by the Bank of Japan really feels like they're setting a trap for the global markets. With a 74% probability, it's definitely coming, and when it does, it's going to be another bloodbath.
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ImpermanentPhobiavip
· 12-06 04:28
This move by the Bank of Japan feels a bit like fanning the flames...
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FadCatchervip
· 12-06 04:15
The Bank of Japan’s move this time is definitely a bit sneaky, and a 74% probability isn’t low. While the Fed is easing, the yen is tightening—this is quite a ruthless game. But that aside, compared to speculating on major power games, I still care more about how much is left in my account. Stop-loss truly is a lifeline—a lot of people get wiped out simply because they refuse to acknowledge their losses.
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Layer2Arbitrageurvip
· 12-06 04:03
actually if you're not frontrunning the jpy carry unwind with delta-neutral positions across eth/usdc pairs, you're leaving like 40-80bps on the table rn. the basis divergence between spot and perp is mathematically suboptimal. just saying.
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CantAffordPancakevip
· 12-06 04:02
We really need to keep a close eye on this move by the Bank of Japan—a 74% probability is no joke. But to be honest, I don’t fully understand the strategies in these big power games, so I just go with the flow. The key is to protect your principal and not get greedy.
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