After a two-month delay, the September Core PCE data is finally going to be released tonight.

This inflation indicator, which was supposed to be published at the end of October, got pushed back to now due to the government shutdown. The issue is, its timing lands right before the December 10th FOMC meeting—this is the market’s last chance to use data to speculate on the probability of a rate cut.

If the PCE annual rate breaks above 2.9%, or the monthly rate exceeds 0.2%, the story gets harder to tell: inflation isn’t under control yet, rate cut expectations will take a direct hit, and the recent rebound might just have been a trap.

The market is already getting tense. For Ethereum, today’s key intraday support is in the 3070 to 2970 range; below that, watch 2935 and 2915. On the upside, keep an eye on the 3210 resistance—if that level isn’t broken, the weak trend will be hard to reverse.

During the rebound to 3160 this afternoon, I went short directly—took both ETH and BTC, harvesting gains on both fronts. Some friends said “this trade was so smooth it made me want to cry,” but really, it was just a matter of predicting in advance that 3160 would be a short-term top and timing it just right.

Now I’m waiting for the abnormal volatility around the data release—either a panic wick or a fake breakout followed by a retest. These are often the moments when you can really grab some profit. Anyway, whether it’s a bloodbath or a surge tonight, I’ll watch the direction closely before making a move.