#比特币对比代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH Countdown to a Bank of Japan rate hike in December—the impact of this event may be far greater than anyone imagines.

Let’s start with a number: the market now expects a 76% probability of a rate hike. Sounds like business as usual? Wrong. This means the “yen carry trade” that has lasted more than twenty years is about to end. At least $20 trillion globally is preparing to flow back to Japan—US Treasuries, tech stocks, emerging markets... nothing is safe.

Why is this time different?
For decades, Japan has been the world’s “free ATM” in the global financial system—zero interest rate policy allowed investors to borrow yen at low cost, then turn around and buy US stocks, Treasuries, crypto assets, and pocket the spread with ease. Now Japan is set to raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, while the Fed is cutting rates. With both sides squeezing, the interest rate differential is narrowing rapidly.

The capital logic has changed: borrowing yen is no longer attractive, carry trades are collapsing, and global liquidity is starting to tighten.

What does this mean for crypto markets? In the short term, there will definitely be volatility. After all, when liquidity tightens, all risk assets get shaken up. But over a longer cycle, when the old order collapses, it’s often the window of opportunity for new assets—especially those not reliant on the traditional financial system. $ETH

US stocks may see outflows, Treasury yields could spike, and the yen will rebound. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could find new narratives amid the chaos. Don’t just focus on the Fed’s FOMC meetings—what Japan is doing is the real global game changer.

Those who understand the trend are already adjusting their positions. What about you?