Morning of 12.5

From the 1-hour ETH chart and technical indicators, the short term is in a weak rebound phase after a decline, with the overall trend still bearish. The rebound momentum is limited, and the candlesticks show a sharp drop followed by weak recovery. Previously, after surging to 3227, the price quickly dropped to a low of 3064, forming a long bearish candlestick, followed by a series of small bullish and bearish oscillating candles, typical of a weak recovery after a decline, without any reversal bullish candlestick pattern. The resistance is obvious, and the price failed to break through the middle Bollinger band at 3162 during the rebound, repeatedly encountering resistance and pulling back below the middle band, indicating insufficient bullish momentum.

Currently, ETH is below the middle Bollinger band, with the upper band at 3216 as strong resistance and the lower band at 3109 as short-term support. The channel is overall sloping downward, signaling a bearish consolidation pattern. The KDJ indicator’s J line has crossed above the neutral 50 line, but the K and D lines remain at low to mid levels, and the J line is close to the overbought area, so the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. The MACD remains in the negative region; although the green bars are shrinking, there is no golden cross yet, and bearish momentum has not fully dissipated. Net capital outflow is 434 million, with significant outflows further weakening the rebound momentum.

In the short term, it is likely to consolidate between the lower Bollinger band at 3109 and the middle band at 3162. If 3109 support is broken, it will retest 3064 or even lower levels; if it holds above the middle band, it may rebound slightly to around 3200. However, the overall downward trend has not fundamentally changed. In the short term, it is recommended to open light positions near the 3190–3220 area on rebounds, with a target near 3115–3070.

The above is for personal reference only. Please refer to Haoyu Shipan's layout for specific guidance!! $ETH #eth ‌