Morning of 12.4

On the current 1-hour ETH chart, there is a structure of consecutive bullish candles followed by small bearish candles after a surge and pullback. The price rapidly surged from 2970 to an intraday high of 3216, then slightly retreated to the 3188 level, which is considered a “retest confirmation after a breakout on increased volume.” Overall, this is an accelerated rally pattern within an uptrend, but the appearance of small bearish candles at high levels indicates that short-term bullish momentum is slightly weakening and there is some profit-taking pressure.

Technical indicators show short-term strength, but overbought conditions should be watched. After previously breaking through the upper Bollinger Band at 3196 and then slightly pulling back, the price is currently moving between the middle and upper bands, indicating a strong “upper band breakout + retest” trend. If it can hold the middle band at 3103, the short-term trend remains bullish.

The KDJ indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting an increased probability of a short-term pullback or sideways consolidation. The MACD indicator shows DIF > DEA but the gap is narrowing, and the MACD histogram is negative, signaling “weakening bullish momentum and an impending bearish crossover,” which could slow down the short-term rally.

For the short-term trend, if the price holds the intraday support at 3150 and volume remains steady, it may retest the 3216 high or even challenge the 3250 area. However, if KDJ stays overbought and MACD is about to cross bearish, the short term may enter a 1-4 hour range of sideways consolidation or minor pullback. Support is at the 3100 middle Bollinger band; if broken, a retest near 3050 is possible. It is recommended to consider light positions on pullbacks to the 3170–3140 area, targeting the 3230–3265 range.

The above is only a personal opinion for reference only. Please refer to Haoyu Shipan’s specific strategy for execution $ETH #ETH价格走势解读 ‌ ‌