Bitcoin hits $80k again, facing resistance... caused by on-chain resistance and FOMO overheating overlapping

After initial fluctuations at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) regained a strong upward trend, rebounding below $74k on April 22 (local time), reaching a high point in about three months, exceeding $79k.

However, during this rebound, it repeatedly failed to break through $80k, increasing vigilance regarding the “upward resistance.” On-chain (blockchain data) indicators clearly show the recent slowdown in upward momentum.

Core resistance line “True Market Mean” (True Market Mean)

On the X platform, Alphractal’s CEO Joao Wedson pointed out that the reason Bitcoin (BTC) was blocked near $80k is due to the “True Market Mean Price” (True Market Mean Price). This indicator estimates the average purchase price (cost basis) of actual active market participants.

Its characteristic is that it particularly excludes dormant coins (including lost coins) and miner rewards, reflecting only the “active” part of circulating supply. It is explained that because it distinguishes between short-term traders and long-term holders, it calculates the average price more precisely, making it easier to serve as a “dynamic support/resistance level” based on trader psychology.

Even if broken through, a “3-day confirmation” interval is needed

Wedson believes that this on-chain resistance also affected Bitcoin (BTC)'s inability to sustain above $79k. He also mentioned that in the past, the “True Market Mean Price” served as an important support line within the end-of-2025 range.

He stated that even if Bitcoin (BTC) price breaks above this indicator, it is best to set a confirmation period of about 3 days to determine if it is a “genuine breakout.” He warns that without confirmation, chasing the rally could allow sellers to regain dominance in the short term, leading to price fluctuations over days to weeks.

FOMO intensifies before the $80k threshold… overheating signals have also appeared

Another background for the slowdown in upward momentum is the change in investor sentiment. On April 23 (local time), on-chain data firm Santiment analyzed that when Bitcoin (BTC) approaches $80k, market sentiment tends toward “FOMO” (Fear of Missing Out), and overheating signals appear.

Santiment pointed out that the price could continue to rise; if it breaks through the $80k resistance, new and returning traders may increase. However, a more likely ideal breakout would occur after optimism cools down. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is approximately $77,588, down 0.3% in 24 hours, which is about 74k Korean won (1 USD = 1,477.50 KRW).

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market Analysis - Bitcoin rebounds from the $74k range, temporarily exceeding $79k, but repeatedly encounters resistance near $80k, showing upward resistance - From an on-chain perspective, the “True Market Mean Price” may act as a dynamic resistance level based on short-term trader psychology - Near $80k, FOMO sharply increases and overheating signals appear, potentially leading to short-term correction or sideways movement 💡 Strategic Points - The key to breaking through $80k is “breakout → stabilize”; compared to a single rapid rise, it is necessary to confirm the price for about 3 days (confirmation period) to filter out “false breakouts” - The stronger the FOMO, the greater the volatility; instead of chasing the rally, it is better to set pre-planned entry points, stop-loss, and failure standards (for example, reducing risk if the resistance is broken again) - Key observation points: ① Whether it stabilizes above the True Market Mean Price ② Whether it regains/maintains $79k ③ Whether it rises again after overheating signals subside (Healthy breakout) 📘 Terminology Clarification - On-chain indicators: metrics based on blockchain transaction/holding data to interpret market conditions - True Market Mean Price (Real Market Average Price): an indicator that excludes dormant coins (including lost coins) and miner rewards, focusing on “actively circulating” coins, estimating the average buy-in price (cost basis) of participants - Cost Basis (Cost Basis): the average purchase price of an investor’s assets, used as a benchmark for breakeven - Resistance level: a zone where price upward movement is hindered, with strong seller pressure - FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): the psychological tendency to blindly chase rising prices due to fear of missing out, often interpreted as a short-term overheating signal