Yesterday morning, Bitcoin's touch of $75,000 doesn't seem very reliable. The price quickly retreated back to $74,400, indicating that derivative positioning plays a much larger role than actual buying. Market makers appear to be forced to buy spot to cover large put positions. A fundamental catalyst couldn't keep prices above this level.

However, looking at the rest of the week, the story is different. Major cryptocurrencies have gained significantly over the past seven days. Ethereum is up 9.4%, around $2,300; Solana has increased 5.5%, above $95; and Dogecoin is up 2%, close to $0.10. Bitcoin also rose 8.9%. This is the broadest rally since the period before the Iran war began.

Looking at spot Bitcoin ETFs, there is something really striking. Last week, there was a net inflow of $767 million, marking the third consecutive week. After experiencing $3 billion in outflows over five weeks at the start of the year, this is a very clear reversal. The correlation between gold and Bitcoin has also become interesting. Since early March, Bitcoin has lagged gold by 13%, and the 90-day correlation between the two assets has shifted from negative to positive. The narrative of digital gold, which seemed dead in February, has come back to life.

The Fed meeting starting today is critical. CME FedWatch shows over a 95% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged, so the decision itself is unlikely to be a surprise. What matters are Powell's statements and future signals. Oil is trading above $100, and the labor market is weakening. The Fed is caught between two fires, and Wednesday's speech could determine the direction of risky assets.