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The communication chip company recently announced its 2025 performance forecast — net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 416 million and 685 million, with a median of 550 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 49.86%. However, Q4 is a bit disappointing, with a quarter-over-quarter decline of 2.83%.
The reasons behind this are not complicated. Upstream EML light sources have been tight, directly affecting the shipment pace of 800G and 1.6T products. This bottleneck has also impacted the subsequent optical modules.
But this situation may not be too pessimistic. Looking ahead, the new series of GPU chips are expected to be shipped in large quantities only in the second half of this year, and Rubin architecture will not start supply until August. By then, the upstream material shortage should ease. Once material supply stabilizes, the company's active products (optical engines, optical modules) will be able to accelerate.
Additionally, they have also laid out quite a few passive products — such as the CPO-ELS and FAU series. These products will also benefit from the current high-speed optical module boom. Overall, with the shipment of 200G single-channel 800G/1.6T optical engines, the company is expected to ride the wave of high industry growth.
The chip industry is like this—if one link gets stuck, the entire chain has to stop. But looking at their passive product layout, there is also potential in the CPO sector.
Let's wait and see how the market performs in the second half of the year. When materials loosen up, that's when the market will take off.