600 million dollars credited or just air? This wave of US-Iran mutual accusations is even more reversal-prone than a K-line!

If you think the market is already magical enough, this news will make you even clearer——
Iran says: the US agrees to unfreeze 6 billion dollars.
The US says: that’s not true.
This back-and-forth is more exciting than short-term market movements.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains in a “semi-blockade” state, one of the world’s most important oil passages, directly turning into a bargaining chip. It’s like putting the remote control of oil prices right on the negotiation table.
The question is: who blinks first?
Iran’s strategy is very clear——using the strait as a bargaining chip;
The US strategy is also very direct——denying to suppress expectations.
This is actually a “expectation management war.” Whoever can control market expectations has more initiative.
From the results, the probability of reaching a “comprehensive agreement” in the short term remains low, but a “phase-wise easing” is possible. For example:
✔ partial navigation resumption
✔ partial asset handling
✔ extension of negotiation cycle
Doesn’t that sound familiar? Yes, this is a typical “dragging strategy.”
For the market, what is most likely to occur in this state?
Not a trend, but volatility.
Oil prices will repeatedly test highs, and risk assets will fluctuate back and forth. You think it will break through, but it pulls back; you think it will collapse, but it pulls back again.
At this moment, the most important thing is not to judge right or wrong, but to control the rhythm.
To sum up:
This is not news, but an “emotion amplifier.” #Gate广场四月发帖挑战