Weekly Bitcoin Outlook: Two Months of Decline and Two Months of Rise, What's Next?

- Technical Analysis: Buyers Still in Control
Bitcoin price rose more than 6% last week, closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490 (derived from its lowest point in August 2024 at $49,000 to its all-time high in October 2025 at $126,199), a major resistance zone. As this week begins, Bitcoin faces slight resistance near the $80,000 barrier and is currently trading at a low of $77,400 on Friday.
If Bitcoin continues its upward movement, the rally could extend toward the psychological barrier of $80,000, then toward the 100-week exponential moving average at $82,482.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart indicates 46, approaching the neutral level of 50, suggesting waning bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the same chart showed a bullish crossover in mid-April, which remains valid, with an upward-sloping histogram supporting the bullish hypothesis.
Weekly BTC/USDT Chart
On the daily chart, the king of cryptocurrencies maintains a short-term bullish trend as the price stays above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, slightly below $75,700, within the upper part of the previous channel, which now acts as immediate support around $75,680.
The RSI on the daily chart near 58 indicates positive momentum but not overbought, while the negative MACD histogram below zero suggests the bullish trend is progressing against a broader momentum backdrop that remains weak.
On the downside, initial support is observed at the previous channel top near $75,680 and the 100-day exponential moving average at $75,675, with a 38.2% Fibonacci correction (drawn from the January high to the February low) at $74,487, and the 50-day exponential moving average around $73,813, reinforcing a deeper demand zone.
On the upside, the 50% correction at $78,962 represents the first notable resistance, followed by the psychological barrier of $80,000, while the 200-day exponential moving average near $82,277 and the 61.8% correction around $83,437 converge just below the horizontal line at $84,410 to form a broader range that could limit the next bullish wave.
Daily BTC/USDT Chart
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