Opinion: Insider information is precisely the key to predicting the market; those with inside knowledge will drive prices closer to the truth.

ME News Report, April 26 (UTC+8), forecast market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are facing increasing regulatory pressure, including enforcement agencies in multiple countries and local governments in the United States beginning to focus on and plan to curb insider trading. However, Robin Hanson, a professor at George Mason University and one of the founders of prediction market theory, stated that insider information is crucial for prediction markets, and strictly banning insider trading is a mistake. He pointed out that the authenticity of prices driven by informed parties is at the core of prediction markets, providing accurate information to aid decision-making. Hanson also suggested that while contracts can protect secrets, the flow of information is equally important and should not be excluded from the market due to information control. He recommends that market participants bear their own risks and participate in a manner similar to playing poker, while emphasizing that prediction markets, as a democratic tool for aggregating information, are not suitable for everyone. (Source: MLion)