There’s one thing most people are ignoring right now: global liquidity is what truly moves the market in cycles. Raoul Pal has been talking about this for a long time, and the numbers are pretty clear—since 2012, the correlation between liquidity and BTC is 90%, reaching 97% with the Nasdaq. This is not a coincidence.

The annual growth of this liquidity is around 10% and shows no signs of slowing down. The GMI Financial Conditions anticipates global liquidity by about six months, and it remains ample. Meanwhile, US liquidity was tightened during the shutdown, creating that weaker period we saw. But this indicator has been recovering since the three-month bottom, and it’s already accelerating.

The economic cycle is crucial here. The eSLR, the mechanism that banks use to increase liquidity through credit, is on the rise and will keep accelerating. As tax refunds enter the banks’ balance sheets, their propensity to create more credit increases. With the US cutting interest rates even further, disposable income rises and risk aversion decreases.

There’s more: the CLARITY law is expected to be approved, and that will open up serious capital flow. Many banks and asset managers want to use crypto technology, and this law solves the regulatory problem. Stablecoins grew 50% last year and continue to accelerate. The volume is already in the trillions and climbing.

Government support for cryptocurrencies is at an all-time high. Regulators will be implemented gradually, which will further accelerate the developing market, creating a new total addressable market.

Now, about the technicals: the market is historically super-bought according to most indicators. The weekly DeMark will provide solid support in two weeks. The daily DeMark is also in overbought territory. Any weakness from here onward completes the daily and weekly signals, indicating potential for a full trend reversal.

The risk is that oil prices remain high. The next two weeks are critical to observe. But considering all these factors—liquidity rising, the economic cycle accelerating, increasing regulatory support, stablecoins exploding—the outlook remains bullish. A rally is expected.