I’ve been thinking lately that it might be time to revisit the Bitcoin cycle theory again.

It’s the so-called four-year cycle, but when the cycle shifts slightly to the left or right, the peak-to-peak alignment starts to drift. Especially when looking at the lows, the four-year cycle remains almost consistent, which is important, and it shows that the bear market tends to last longer than expected. On the other hand, the gains at the highs aren’t that large. In other words, a translated cycle is occurring.

The problem is, what exactly is driving this four-year cycle? The time-based cycle definitely exists, and the rhythm so far has generally been functioning. But there’s a sense that something feels different than before. Perhaps, because the macroeconomic cycle is in a low phase, it’s also affecting Bitcoin’s own cycle.

The increase in left-shifted patterns might also be caused by this.

The focus from now on is whether a new structure for Bitcoin will form when the economic cycle enters a recovery phase. In other words, the relationship between macro and micro factors will be the key to determining the future Bitcoin cycle. It can be said that the time to answer this question has almost been given within this year.