To those still waiting for CME to open tomorrow:

$BTC This weekend, it dropped from $78,333 back to $74,522, a 4.2% correction, which aligns with my expectation of a high-risk window during CME's market closure on 4/18. It’s not beyond expectations; it’s a very standard weekend correction pattern.
The logic behind this window is always the same: CME is closed, ETF net inflows pause, institutional traders don’t enter the market over the weekend, and supporting forces weaken. Historically, Bitcoin tends to be weaker during this window, which is a predictable pattern. It’s not some mysterious prophecy; you can verify it yourself by reviewing historical data. Don’t be surprised every time as if it’s an accident.
Tomorrow’s opening will be the real test point. I’ve prepared two scenarios:
If CME futures buy orders come in and $75K holds the line, this weekend’s correction is just a technical adjustment. The post-tax rebound logic is still in effect, and the ETF net inflow of $306 million on 4/18 indicates institutional sentiment hasn’t reversed. The geopolitical positive factors in the Middle East also haven’t changed substantially. The foundation for Bitcoin to continue pushing toward $78K-$80K remains intact.
If the opening price directly breaks below $73,800, it indicates $78K false breakout. Bears successfully reverse during the weekend window, and the next support level to watch is in the $71K-$72K range. That’s where the most concentrated buy orders from last week are, and it’s also a large-scale contract liquidation zone. Holding that level would be considered a true bottom.
Today, Bitcoin’s 24-hour low touched $73,724, just one step away from $73,800. Holding this line tonight signals bulls are holding their ground.
I personally lean toward the first scenario: the fundamentals haven’t reversed direction, but I won’t add positions until the conclusion is clear. Tonight, I’ll set an alert at $73,800. If it breaks below, I’ll reassess. If it doesn’t, I’ll continue holding, and there’s no need to panic. $BTC