1️⃣ Compromise or escalation?

I lean toward a temporary compromise until April 21. Both sides are interested in avoiding a full-scale war, but rhetoric will remain tough. The troop movement is more of a pressure lever than preparation for an attack.

2️⃣ Sell the news or rise on a deal?
A classic "sell the news" scenario is likely: markets have already priced in some optimism into the current S&P highs. But if the agreement exceeds expectations—for example, regarding oil flows—there could be a short-term bounce up of 2–3%. Then—a correction.

3️⃣ Asset allocation at this phase:

· 40% — cash or short-term Treasuries (for volatility)
· 30% — quality stocks (technology + healthcare)
· 20% — gold (hedge against geopolitics)
· 10% — oil (long with a protective stop in case negotiations fail)

It currently looks like a false breakout in risk assets—caution wouldn't hurt.
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