I just got a little itchy again and wanted to chase, but ended up pulling myself back to look at the data… To be honest, every time I impulsively add to my position, nine times out of ten it’s not because “I’ve learned something,” but because I see others’ prices rising faster and my heart heats up.

Pause for two minutes first, and ask myself: Is what’s pushing me now new information, or is it emotions looking for an outlet?

I usually sneak a peek at three things: whether the net fund flow is keeping up, whether active addresses are also moving, and whether the cost distribution is obviously stacked at high levels.
If none of these are moving in sync, that kind of surge looks very much like emotions driving the move, and chasing in could easily turn into a relay.

Recently, everyone’s been talking about rate cut expectations, the dollar index, and risk assets rising and falling together…
It sounds very macro, but for me, it’s just one sentence: if everything is just supported by “expectations,” then I shouldn’t hold my position too tightly.
It’s okay to slow down; I’d rather miss out on a little than be driven by emotions.
That’s all for now.