Interest rates, to put it simply, are like "the thermometer of money's mood." When you look up, people's first thought isn't whether they can earn more, but whether they can lose less. Risk appetite shrinks back, and positions also lighten accordingly. The few things I keep an eye on are: whether net capital flow has been continuously positive, whether active addresses are just barely holding on, and once the cost distribution becomes very concentrated, I become even less willing to make aggressive moves, afraid that a single needle could pierce through.

On-chain narratives are also quite interesting. Modular, DeFi layer developers are talking excitedly, while users are often confused: you say it's cheaper and faster, but I only care if my transaction will get stuck or my funds will disappear... When macro conditions are tight, stories about "the future" are harder to directly influence positions. Anyway, I’ll slowly align the data first, preferring to eat less than to get myself anxious.