#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Bitcoin plummeted over 40% from 125k yuan; is the crypto winter really here in 2026?

Bitcoin crashed over 40% from its high of 125k yuan, and in 2026, it has fallen for four consecutive months, prompting Wall Street to call for a crypto winter.
Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity or a sign to exit? Should ordinary people panic?
This sudden plunge at high levels in Bitcoin came without any warning, arriving quickly and fiercely, leaving investors no time to react.
In early October 2025, it just touched the historic high of $125k, seemingly poised to rise further, but suddenly turned sharply downward, completely abandoning its upward trend and entering a prolonged sideways decline.
What’s even more despairing is that it has already broken through two key support levels at $90k and $80k; in February 2026, it once plunged near $60k.
Even with recent slight rebounds to around $69k, the decline from the high remains over 40%.
Countless investors’ “rebound” turned out to be a fleeting illusion—every attempt to break upward was met with heavy sell-offs, crushing bullish confidence bit by bit.
The more it fell, the fewer dared to buy; the fewer buyers, the more it dropped.
The start of the new year was even more disastrous. On the night of January 1, 2026, Bitcoin suddenly plunged in a straight line, dropping from $89k to $87k within hours, triggering a global liquidation wave—nearly 164k contracts were liquidated, with over $120 million in total liquidation within 24 hours.
By early February, the decline saw over 400k liquidations in a single day, with $2.5 billion evaporating instantly.
The entire crypto circle was in chaos, with loud wails and despair.
Once lively trading groups are now silent and full of complaints.
Market warnings from institutions are never baseless; more and more Wall Street giants are joining the bearish camp.
Each warning signal pulls the “crypto winter” shadow closer.
Financial services giant Cantor’s latest report bluntly states that, affected by Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and macro environment, the crypto market in 2026 is unlikely to see a rally, and it’s most likely to be the first down year since 2022.
Even more alarming, this round of decline has already exceeded 180 days from the high, while the average duration of past crypto winters has been over 225 days.
Based on this cycle, the current drop is just the beginning.
Once a firm Bitcoin bull, Standard Chartered has made a 180-degree turn—cut its 2026 Bitcoin target price from $300k to $150k, effectively accepting a weak market pattern this year.
Ned Davis Research has issued an extreme forecast: if the winter fully erupts, Bitcoin could fall to $31k, a 55% drop from current levels, essentially wiping out investors’ principal repeatedly.
The consensus among institutions is clear: the biggest problem now is liquidity exhaustion.
Retail investors are panicking and exiting, institutional buyers are halting entry, and marginal buying is severely lacking.
No one wants to buy the dip, and as a result, Bitcoin is likely to remain weak for the next few months.
Breaking out of this independent trend seems as difficult as climbing a mountain.
The most ironic and perplexing aspect of Bitcoin’s underperformance in this decline is that the macro environment should have been favorable for Bitcoin, yet it completely “refused to buy,” charting a decline independent of all other assets.
In the second half of 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in a row.
According to traditional market logic, loose monetary policy would flood the market with liquidity, attracting funds into risk assets like Bitcoin and pushing prices higher.
But the reality was the opposite—each rate cut not only failed to boost Bitcoin as expected but also intensified its decline, diverging entirely from the trend of traditional risk assets, leaving everyone puzzled.
Compared to traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin’s performance was even more “disappointing.”
During the same period, gold repeatedly hit new highs, staying above $2,300 per ounce, while silver and platinum also surged, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven markets seeking security.
Once hailed as a “new safe-haven asset,” Bitcoin has become a highly volatile speculative instrument.
Its safe-haven attributes have completely failed—rather than becoming a “harbor of safety,” it turned into a “hot potato” that funds are eager to sell off.
Market analysis suggests that one reason is the lack of liquidity, coupled with uncertain rate cut prospects, leading to a sharp decline in risk appetite.
Another reason is the frequent reports of institutional whales selling off Bitcoin holdings, with multiple negative signals stacking up, shattering Bitcoin’s “safe-haven myth” and causing investor confidence to collapse.
Every time the term “crypto winter” is mentioned, it leaves a deep impression on veteran crypto investors—an ingrained fear.
Since Bitcoin’s inception, the market has experienced four brutal bear markets, each accompanied by wealth evaporation, project closures, and confidence collapse.
Now, a similar script seems to be replaying.
In 2011, Bitcoin faced its first winter, crashing from $30 to $2, a decline of over 93%, leaving many early investors wiped out.
In 2015, it fell from $1,124 to $197, down over 82%, forcing many crypto projects to shut down.
In 2018, it dropped from $19k to $3,200, a decline of over 83%, leading to a large-scale reshuffle in the crypto space.
In 2022, it plunged from $69k to $17k, down over 73%, causing many crypto institutions to go bankrupt and leaving a mess behind.
Cantor’s team specifically warns that fear of winter itself accelerates market declines.
Now, more and more investors are panicking, rushing to liquidate their crypto holdings regardless of price, selling first and asking questions later.
The market is falling into a vicious cycle of “selling more as prices drop,” and confidence is collapsing faster than prices.
Not betting on a winter and protecting principal is the safest choice.
However, institutional investors are not entirely bearish; many remain optimistic about the long-term value of the crypto market.
Although Cantor warns of short-term downside, they believe ongoing institutional inflows and clearer global regulations will provide long-term support for Bitcoin.
JPMorgan also pointed out that 2026 will be a critical turning point for the crypto market.
With clearer regulations, large institutions like pension funds and insurance companies will accelerate their entry, and long-term capital inflows will gradually stabilize the market.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin still has the potential to hit new all-time highs in the future, but after reaching new highs, a longer bear market cycle is likely—meaning, long-term optimism exists, but short-term risks must be carefully watched.
For ordinary investors, the most unnecessary thing now is to worry about whether the “winter” has truly arrived.
In the short term, Bitcoin’s weak trend is unlikely to change, and prices still have room to fall.
Blindly buying the dip or using leverage to gamble could lead to huge losses or even wipe out your capital.
The most important thing now is to rationally assess your risk tolerance, avoid high-leverage contracts, control your positions, and even consider temporarily exiting the market to observe.
Surviving in 2026’s crypto market, where confidence and risk are at odds, is more important than anything else.