Gate connects to Polymarket prediction markets: Making future events a new trading dimension

Cryptocurrency Trading Shifts from Price to Events

In the early days of the crypto market, most trading activity revolved around asset price fluctuations, with investors typically predicting price movements by analyzing market trends, technical indicators, or fundamentals. As market structures gradually matured, a new form of trading began to attract attention—event-based trading. Unlike traditional trading, this mode no longer focuses solely on asset prices but shifts attention to whether certain events will occur.

For example, election results, economic policies, or major market events could become trading targets. This shift extends the market from pure price competition to judgments about future outcomes.

How Markets Price Probabilities for the Future

The core of prediction markets lies in converting judgments about the future into quantifiable prices. When participants buy or sell based on the outcome of an event, the market gradually forms a price, which can typically be understood as the market’s overall assessment of the probability of that event occurring.

This mechanism makes the market not just a trading platform but also an information aggregation system. As different participants join in trading, prices continuously adjust to reflect the market’s collective view of the future. Therefore, prediction markets are also seen as a form of collective intelligence.

Different Perspectives Create Trading Opportunities

In traditional markets, trading strategies often rely on price trends or fundamental analysis. In event-based trading, market opportunities often arise from differing viewpoints among participants.

Different users may base their predictions on various information sources and judgment methods, leading to divergent forecasts for the same event. When these expectations diverge, the market will experience price fluctuations. Even before the final outcome is revealed, the price changes during the event’s development can provide trading opportunities. This makes trading not only a judgment on prices but also a competition of information and viewpoints.

Dual-Mode Design Lowers Entry Barriers

To enable more users to participate in prediction markets, platforms offer different operational modes tailored to varying experience levels.

1. Intuitive Prediction Mode By simplifying probability displays and price presentations, users can quickly grasp the market’s overall view of the event, making operations easier.

2. Professional Trading Mode For users familiar with trading systems, the platform provides order books, depth data, and more comprehensive market information, allowing for more precise trading strategies.

This design balances ease of use with professionalism, attracting participants from diverse backgrounds.

How to Start Participating in Prediction Markets

Participating in Polymarket is relatively straightforward, requiring only a few basic steps to begin trading.

1. Update the App First, update the Gate App to version v8.12.5 or above to ensure full functionality.

2. Log Into Your Account After opening the app, log in with your Gate account. If you haven’t registered yet, complete account creation and basic verification first.

3. Access the Prediction Market Section From the homepage, enter the Alpha portal to browse currently open prediction markets for various events.

4. Select an Event and Place an Order On the specific event page, choose Yes or No based on your judgment, then input the amount to purchase and complete the trade.

5. Wait for Results and Settlement Once the event outcome is confirmed, the system will automatically settle based on the final result, and correct predictions will earn corresponding returns.

The overall process resembles a combination of information analysis and trading decision-making, with an operation method that is relatively intuitive.

Centralized and On-Chain Trading Coexist

In terms of participation methods, the platform offers two different pathways to meet user needs. General users can directly use stablecoins through the platform’s account system, providing an experience similar to traditional trading markets with easier operation. For users familiar with blockchain technology, they can also participate directly on-chain via Web3 wallets. Related trades and settlements are completed on the Polygon network, maintaining a certain degree of decentralization. This dual-track design allows users from different backgrounds to engage in prediction markets.

Integrated Tools Enhance Trading Experience

To help users better understand market conditions, the platform integrates multiple information tools within the system. Data such as market prices, probability changes, and trading depth can all be viewed on a single interface. These insights assist users in gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the market.

Additionally, the entire process from position building to event settlement has been automated. When the event outcome is confirmed, the system completes the settlement and distributes earnings to accounts, reducing unnecessary operational steps. This integrated design makes the overall user experience smoother.

The Future Potential of Prediction Markets

As market participation increases, the role of prediction markets may gradually expand. Through extensive trading activity, market prices will continuously reflect collective expectations about future events. This mechanism makes prediction markets not only financial products but also important indicators of informational value. In the future, prediction markets could further integrate with data analysis, financial markets, and blockchain technology to form new models of information pricing.

Summary

The rise of prediction markets offers a new direction for crypto trading. Moving beyond simple price trading, markets now extend into judgments about future event outcomes. With intuitive operation designs and diverse participation methods, event-based trading gradually lowers barriers to entry, enabling more users to participate. As technology and markets continue to develop, prediction markets are expected to play an increasingly important role in the crypto ecosystem and bring more possibilities to the financial world.