Tonight's CPI Preview: "Iran Premium" Included for the First Time, Traders Increase Hedging Against Inflation Risks

MeNews · 2026-04-10T01:20:20+00:00

U.S. CPI data will reflect the impact of rising oil prices, with inflation expected to reach its highest level in nearly four years. Market bets on rising U.S. Treasury yields have increased, and attention is on energy costs after improvements in non-farm employment data. Short-term interest rate room for decline is limited, and expectations for rate cuts have significantly tightened.

MeNews

2026-04-10 01:20:20

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ME News Report, April 10 (UTC+8), tonight’s US CPI data may first significantly reflect the “Iran premium” brought by soaring oil prices. The market expects this monthly increase to hit a nearly four-year high, with inflation once again becoming a core variable in asset pricing.
In the bond market, traders have already positioned themselves for risk hedging, heavily increasing options positions betting on rising yields for 5-year and 10-year US Treasuries.
JPMorgan’s survey shows that the current net long sentiment in the spot market has fallen to a three-week low.
On the macroeconomic front, strong non-farm payroll data eased growth concerns, refocusing the market on energy cost shocks.
Year-to-date, Brent crude oil has risen nearly 60%, further reinforcing inflation expectations.
Interest rate expectations are tightening in tandem.
Currently, the market prices only about a 30% chance of a 25 basis point cut in 2026, significantly lower than the expectations earlier this year for multiple rate cuts.
Institutional views suggest that, with resilient employment and rising energy prices, the short-term space for rate cuts is limited.
If CPI confirms a rebound in inflation, expectations for “later and fewer” rate cuts will be further strengthened. (Source: BlockBeats)

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