Odaily Exclusive Interview with Bitwise: BTC May Reach $95,000 by the End of the Year

Original | Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜jk

As Bitcoin’s price has halved from its historical peak and geopolitical clouds loom over global markets, is institutional capital retreating, or quietly accumulating? On March 24, Odaily Planet Daily interviewed Bitwise Asset Management’s Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen live in New York.

Bitwise currently manages approximately $15 billion in assets, making it the world’s largest provider of crypto index funds and a key issuer of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs. In this interview, he shared the core driving logic behind Bitcoin’s price in 2026, specific predictions for year-end pricing, discussed the ongoing “great migration of positions” between retail and institutional investors, and talked about the role of the Asian market in the global crypto landscape.

The following is the full text of the interview:

Odaily: Today at the DAS Summit in New York, we are honored to have Ryan from Bitwise with us. Before we start the questions, could you please introduce yourself briefly for our Asian audience?

Ryan: Of course. I am Ryan Rasmussen, the Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management. We are a global crypto asset management company primarily providing public and private funds as well as staking solutions for institutional investors. Currently, we manage approximately $15 billion in assets and have operations in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. We are one of the largest issuers in the Solana ETF, Bitcoin ETF, and Ethereum ETF space, and we also manage a variety of index funds. We have the largest cryptocurrency index fund in the world.

Odaily: What are the biggest factors influencing Bitcoin’s price in 2026, and could you rank them with approximate weight percentages, such as the inflow and outflow of structured products from U.S. traditional financial institutions, statements and policies from Trump and his family, the awakening and selling of long-held whales, the survival pressure on miners, and the ongoing impacts of past hacking incidents, etc.?

Ryan: The biggest long-term driver of Bitcoin’s price is institutional adoption. The reason is that for the past fifteen years, most institutional investors globally have not been able to access Bitcoin or other crypto assets. With the upcoming launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, and now the introduction of Ethereum, Solana, and other ETF products, we see institutional investors starting to gradually catch up on Bitcoin investment. However, this does not mean that allocations have truly begun: in fact, many investors we have spoken to, whether in the U.S., Europe, or Asia, have not yet started investing in Bitcoin. So I think the biggest driving factor is the speed at which institutional investors begin to allocate Bitcoin on a large scale. I believe this will start happening in 2026, with more progress in the second half of the year, which will be a joint driver for the short and long term, driven by demand from those institutional investors who have not yet entered the market.

Odaily: Can you talk specifically about the weights?

Ryan: This is indeed a very interesting topic. A few years ago, investors who started allocating with us initially allocated about 1%, and today most clients have around 5% allocation to crypto assets. The most interesting thing is that those who are starting their initial allocations now are not starting at 1%, but rather at 2% to 3%, while many of our long-term clients are already around 5%. So I would say that the typical allocation for new investors is about 2%, while old investors with crypto exposure are around 5%. But when you think about the wealth controlled by global institutional investors, this number is quite substantial—1% to 2% to 5% of $100 trillion in wealth already exceeds the current total market value of Bitcoin. That is why institutional allocation will ultimately dominate Bitcoin’s price in the long term, and why this is such an important factor.

Odaily: Is it still possible for Bitcoin to continue to decline significantly? Is the current point the bottom of this cycle?

Ryan: Our view is that we are closer to Bitcoin’s bottom now, and the downward space is not as large anymore. If Bitcoin consolidates for a few more months, I wouldn’t be surprised, as macro factors are really dominating right now—conflicts in the Middle East, many things happening in South America, and it’s uncertain what will happen in Cuba in the short term; we even saw the situation in Venezuela earlier this year. So there are many uncertainties in macro and geopolitical factors, which I believe puts all risk assets and all financial assets under pressure.

Once macro uncertainty stabilizes and geopolitical uncertainty also settles down, I believe we will start to see Bitcoin and other crypto assets truly begin to accelerate upward. But I do think that Bitcoin and the crypto market will generally consolidate in the next few months. In the second half of the year, we believe we will see a significant inflow of institutional capital through ETFs, driving prices higher and ending the year at a price above the beginning of the year, which means Bitcoin will be around $95,000 at year-end, representing about a 40% increase from today’s price. We believe we are currently in a crypto bear market that has lasted about a year, and our judgment is that Bitcoin will end the year with gains, and 2027 will be a very positive year.

Odaily: From last year’s ATH to this year’s price being cut in half, what kind of people do you think are accumulating, and what kind are selling?

Ryan: What we are observing is a switch from retail to institutional investors, a one-time switch that is having a profound impact on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as institutional investors are entering this market through ETFs and other funds, and we see that the regulatory environment in the U.S. and abroad is becoming clearer, making institutional investors more comfortable in making allocation decisions.

At the same time, retail investors have experienced many cycles of crypto booms and busts. Those early investors who got in when Bitcoin was $1, $10, or $100, saw it rise to $125,000, and then watched it drop back to $70,000, are now ready to take some chips off the table. This is actually very similar to the typical situation when a private company eventually goes public: early investors finally see the IPO and are ready to cash out, while new shareholders come in to participate in the company’s equity. I believe this is exactly what is happening in the crypto market now: early investors, predominantly retail, are transferring their positions to institutional investors who have a long-term focus and systematic operations. They are not thinking in terms of one, two, or three years; they are looking at five, ten, or twenty years.

To summarize: currently, those selling are retail investors, while those buying are institutions. This switch is net positive for the dynamics of the crypto market because institutional investors do not have such strong behavioral biases; they are more systematic and focused on the long term.

Odaily: In the current situation of global turmoil, BTC has disappointed some investors’ expectations for a safe haven. Compared to traditional assets like gold, silver, and oil, why should people still believe in Bitcoin?

Ryan: I believe that from a long-term perspective, Bitcoin’s outlook has never been stronger than it is now. The largest financial institutions globally are converging toward Bitcoin. We are communicating with investors every day, from financial advisors to family offices, to hedge funds, endowments, pension funds, and even sovereign wealth funds, all of whom are researching crypto assets and Bitcoin. I believe this is a journey that takes years to complete; if one expects Bitcoin to transition from a niche asset to a mature global asset in fifteen years of history, that would be short-sighted.

What Bitcoin brings to the portfolio is similar to what gold, oil, and other commodities offer: substantial diversification benefits and very low correlation with other asset classes. If you look at Bitcoin’s role in a portfolio (assuming you add 5% Bitcoin to a traditional stock, bond, and commodity portfolio), it enhances risk-adjusted returns because it has almost no correlation with other assets and has very strong risk-return characteristics over the long term. However, investing in crypto assets must focus on the long term, eliminating emotional biases; only then can you truly start to see the value of crypto assets in a portfolio.

Odaily: Does Bitwise currently have operations in Asia? What are the main ones?

Ryan: Yes, we have operations in Asia. I personally have traveled to Singapore multiple times over the past few years. Our institutional partnership team has also been to Hong Kong, Singapore, and other Asian markets. We have people on the ground who can meet with banks, clients, family offices, and other institutions at any time to help them gain exposure to crypto assets through private funds, SMAs, public funds, staking products, and more.

Speaking of staking, we have recently expanded significantly into Asia by acquiring Chorus One. Chorus One is one of the largest staking service providers globally. We see a lot of interest and demand in Asia, especially with many family offices actively reaching out to us for exposure; there are also many banks contacting us, wanting to understand how their wealth management clients and private banking clients can access crypto assets. We are very excited about the growth prospects, and we also have a team stationed locally. Interested parties are welcome to contact us anytime.

Odaily: Are there any significant differences between Asia and other regions that you can share?

Ryan: The differences are quite significant. In terms of how they view crypto assets, the U.S., Europe, and Asia are very different markets.

U.S. institutional investors have been lagging in crypto assets because the regulatory stance in the U.S. has been very adverse to crypto assets. The previous administration from 2020 to 2024 has actively suppressed the crypto industry at every level, from the White House to regulatory agencies. We are now seeing that shift. This means that institutional investors have been delayed for many, many years because they are concerned about engaging with assets that the government may be trying to eradicate through regulatory means.

Europe is slightly different, although European institutional investors have been slower to adopt crypto assets compared to Asia.

In Asia, we see a lot of enthusiasm for participation, and I believe that Asia is actually more forward-looking in adopting and investing in this technology than the outside world recognizes. This is also part of why we find it so exciting and attractive to expand into this market.