Analysis of rebound under reduced volume and recovery, and analysis of breakout stocks following breakage and reversal of limit-up blocks~~

Hello everyone, happy weekend. Today’s market has rebounded as expected from the 3850-point level. The volume of funds in this area is still low today, coinciding with Friday’s cautious funding. We will see how the news from the Persian Gulf this weekend will impact the market. There is also talk about the Fed potentially raising interest rates. If there really are expectations of rate hikes and the conflict in the Persian Gulf is not peacefully resolved, then the market may experience one last significant drop next week, which would be at the 3796 level. Right now, it’s a “Paw Patrol” situation, with a lot of funds in the hands of large institutions. If necessary, during the final drop, large funds will step in to stabilize the market. [淘股吧]

Today’s market has a rather average profit-making effect, with the electric coordination (core main line) sector facing high-level divergence and switching between high and low positions. Huadian Liaoning Energy saw a limit down, and certain mid-tier stocks in Huadian Cycle collectively declined, with Liaoning Energy even hitting the limit down. Xineng Taishan achieved a four-day limit up (cables + state-owned enterprises), while Guangxi Energy (green energy + state-owned capital) attracted funding. Jinkong Power saw a two-day limit up (transitioning to thermal power) but is now experiencing a low-level rebound. High-level stocks like Liaoning Energy hit the limit down, with funds shifting from high-level computing power/green energy to low-priced state-owned stocks. The logic of direct supply of computing power in green energy remains strong but is increasingly diverging.

Electric coordination follows an industrial chain approach, with the components of electric coordination including (electricity + energy storage + new energy + photovoltaics + batteries + smart grid equipment). Therefore, battery performance was very strong today, and this is also compounded by the logic of rising chemical raw material prices; it became the strongest point in today’s market.

Oversold rebounds (rotating main lines): Energy metals such as Rongjie Co. and Ganfeng Lithium led the gains, with Jiangte Electric and Chuaneng Power hitting multiple limit ups. Innovative drugs/weight-loss drugs also exploded simultaneously, with Menohua achieving four consecutive limit ups, and several stocks hitting a 20cm limit up, driven by large performance surges in April. Chemical, small metals, and solid-state battery sectors collectively rebounded from oversold conditions, with funds rotating and focusing on valuation recovery. The sustainability of these sectors still mainly relies on rotation, with structurally strong individual stocks!

Today’s core stocks in the market include electric coordination—Xineng Taishan, Guangxi Energy, Jinkong Power; oversold rebounds—Rongjie Co., Ganfeng Lithium, Menohua; the market cycle is at a stage of main line divergence + oversold rotation + emotional recovery. Electric coordination has entered the second stage of high-level differentiation and low-level rebound; oversold rebounds are the primary choice for funds rotating between high and low positions. Dual main lines are running in parallel, with volume constraints limiting rebound heights. Next week, we need to follow up on volume and whether the main line can continue. Additionally, the disclosure of Q1 performance reports in April will further influence the stocks in electric coordination, innovative drugs, chemicals, energy metals, etc. Stocks that have performance reports released will see institutional increases, as April is also the core month for performance speculation.

Here, I would like to analyze the core logic of limit-down rebounds:

1. First, the probability of core main line stocks rebounding after hitting a limit down is high. In rare cases, non-main line stocks with strong control can also experience rapid limit-down rebounds and then develop independent trends. This situation has occurred frequently, with stocks like Zhejiang Dongri (which was selling vegetables while working on brain-machine interfaces) in 2025, Debi Technology, Huajian Group, Guosheng Technology, etc., including this year’s Farsen and Menohua, all emerging from limit-down rebounds on non-main line themes.

2. Limit-down rebounds can clearly distinguish whether the main force is washing out or dumping. A relatively simple method is that if a stock can quickly repair the limit down on the second day after it occurs, the main force is relatively strong. Of course, this also needs to be combined with minute charts for judgment. Generally, we focus on stocks that hit a limit down on Tuesday—by Friday, the main force needs to repair and rebound to the price entity top of the limit down day. This is about the effectiveness of time; generally, strong stocks will not wait for three days.

3. If some stocks hit a limit down on Monday but show no recovery today and have been rapidly decreasing with volume for four consecutive days, this situation can also be addressed with a high-volume washout strategy. This means that if the volume shrinks to half, and the stock shows a significant volume increase afterward, it is also the main force’s washing technique.

Next, I will share how Menohua has emerged. This stock has been on our daily watch list, but we haven’t entered, considering that innovative drugs are not the main line.

Menohua’s rapid rebound with increased volume, without shrinking to half, quickly confirmed the rise after a pullback;

Before the Spring Festival, the chemical price increase cycle occurred after the main force’s volume shrank and rebounded, leading to a rapid increase that released trapped positions, quickly shrinking back to the large-volume shadow top. At that time, we achieved over 40%+ returns!

For limit-down rebounds, I personally prefer and focus on stocks that can rebound within three days as strong candidates. If a stock rebounds within three days but subsequently breaks the entity bottom of the limit-down day, it indicates a need for deeper washing, which will take longer and be more labor-intensive to track. Stocks like Lixin New Energy and Silver Star Energy have broken down, and they are likely to continue washing next week. Such time nodes will be prolonged.

Additionally, regarding the strongest and most violent volume increases, as mentioned in the comments earlier, if a volume rebound occurs and the stock price rises along the 5-day line, it should meet a limit up within three days to anticipate acceleration. If no acceleration occurs within three days, caution is warranted. This has been analyzed multiple times, such as with Guangxi Energy, which has gained attention recently.

For limit-down rebounds, everyone should review and track daily, focusing on the resonance of time nodes and themes. It’s better to compare and track than to chase highs and lows daily.

The above is today’s review article and some core stocks regarding limit-down rebounds. This is my personal understanding, and there are no individual stock recommendations. The stock market carries risks; invest cautiously!