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[U.S. Stock Market Open] Market expects the probability of a rate hike this year to rise to 60%, as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields all increase simultaneously. Dow Jones drops 354 points, Nasdaq falls 0.8% (updating continuously)
U.S. President Trump said he would extend the bombing of Iranian power plants by another 10 days, and it did not ease market worries. Instead, concerns grew that a prolonged conflict could affect oil supplies, intensifying the global economic shock and focusing attention on whether global central banks might fall into an interest-rate-hike cycle. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.46%, the highest level in over 8 months. The yield on 20-year government bonds climbed above 5%, marking the first time since July last year.
U.S. stocks traded with volatility. The Dow fell 354 points to 45,605. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 6,432. The Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 21,245.
Oil prices continued rising. New York crude oil gained 2.6% to $96.95. Brent May futures rose 2.4% to $110.57. June crude rose 2.1% to $104.02.
Gold prices rose by more than 1%. New York gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,448. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,418.
Funds continued flowing into the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven. The U.S. Dollar Index broke through the 100 level. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) said that, at the tactical level, it maintained a neutral stance on the U.S. dollar. On the one hand, it reflects that the United States, as the world’s largest net energy exporter, benefits from more favorable trade terms amid the current energy crisis. On the other hand, it also reflects the defensive asset status of the U.S. dollar during market volatility. Given the current inflation situation, we believe the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates is more limited than in the past. Under the bank’s baseline scenario, it expects at most one rate cut in 2026, below the earlier expectation of 1 to 2 cuts.
The bank expected that, within the next 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will gradually regain the trend of diversifying allocations away from the U.S. dollar. This would exert mild downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, causing it to weaken versus some of the major currencies. The outlook reflects that the market remains uncertain about U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while other economies such as Australia and China have relatively improved prospects. However, upward risks for the U.S. dollar still remain, and the longer energy supply disruptions last, the more prominent these risks become.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are ongoing—see: next page
Intra-day market:
【18:29】Trump extends the final ultimatum deadline by 10 days again; Dow futures down 67 points and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%; U.S. dollar and U.S. long-dated bond yields rise together
【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points to 46,407; S&P futures up 29 points to 6,554; Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5% to 23,905.
【15:11】Oil prices show mixed moves. New York crude oil futures down 0.3% to $94.24; Brent crude futures up nearly 0.1% to $108.11. Gold prices are up more than 1%. New York gold futures up 1.8% to $4,487; spot gold up 1.7% to $4,451.
【13:25】【AI + Memory】Google unveils new technology TurboQuant to shake up storage, chip stocks—Mordor describes it as “another DeepSeek moment”—analysis: positive for cloud service giants
【11:26】【U.S. dollar bills】Trump signs to have his image appear on the new series of U.S. bills, breaking the 165-year U.S. presidential tradition
【11:15】【Japanese yen trend】Japanese yen to Hong Kong dollar at 4.91; Japan’s Finance Minister Kamiyama Ozuetsuki hints that it will intervene in FX markets
【10:56】【AAPL】Apple unusually awards bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI, etc.
【10:49】【U.S. interest rates】Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: the impact of rising energy prices on inflation is still limited; current rate stance is appropriate
【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI’s U.S. ads revenue for 6 weeks has already exceeded $100 million; plans to expand to more countries in the coming weeks
【10:07】【Gold price trend】Gold prices recoup part of their losses. Trump again delays the deadline for reaching a deal with Iran. The Turkish central bank sells more than $8 billion worth of gold, increasing downward pressure on gold prices
【10:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: extend negotiation final deadline to April 6; “The Iranian side politely asked for 7 days, and I gave them 10 days.” (ongoing updates)
【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises monthly fees for all U.S. subscribers; the increase is as high as more than 12%
【09:28】【IPO news】Anthropic reportedly considers going public as early as October; could raise more than $60 billion
【08:47】【IPO news】SpaceX reportedly plans to hold an investor briefing in April; intends to allocate up to 30% of IPO shares to retail investors
【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s “major refresh” for Siri; Apple reportedly plans to open Siri to external AI assistants
$1 below is U.S. stock market on March 26 ===
Thursday: Trump extends the bombing of Iranian power plants by 10 days again—oil prices swing wildly
U.S. President Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social, saying: “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent that I will pause the destruction period of the power plants for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing. Despite false-news media and others spreading the opposite and incorrect rumors, the talks are progressing extremely smoothly.”
Brent crude futures initially wiped out 7% of the gains, but because the message still indicates that the Strait of Hormuz will face an additional 10 days of blockade, oil prices surged again by 5% to $107.
Watch the U.S. stock market close:
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With concerns about inflation continuing, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.412%, up 0.079 percentage points. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 99.93.
The Dow closed down 469 points to 45,960. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,477. The Nasdaq dropped 2.4% to 21,408.
Trump said at a cabinet meeting that the U.S. would continue to strike them until Iran reaches an agreement to end the conflict. He confirmed at the meeting that the U.S. still plans for the Iran war to last only four to six weeks.
Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by Iran’s negotiation representatives was permission for at least 8 tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump said these ships passing through the strait would be a signal to the U.S., showing that the representatives are demonstrating that “we are real and reliable.” Trump said these tankers could fly the Pakistani flag. He continued: “I said at the time, ‘Well, I think we’re dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some things they said for themselves, and said they would send two more ships.” The White House refused to provide further details about the tankers.
Trump had earlier posted on Truth Social, saying that Iran’s negotiation representatives were unusual and “a bit weird.” On the one hand, they “plead” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he thought was understandable. However, they publicly said they were only considering the U.S. proposal. He said it was completely wrong, and urged Iran to take things seriously as soon as possible, otherwise it would be too late and the consequences would be unthinkable!
He later said in an interview that the Iran issue would be resolved quickly and wouldn’t take long. Energy prices would fall back, even to lower levels. It was unclear whether Iran was willing to reach an agreement. He said they should have reached one four weeks earlier and missed the opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. had completely destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, and about 90% of its missiles and missile launchers, and said Iran should retaliate against Israel, other countries in the region, and the U.S. use of nuclear weapons.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, citing sources, said Iran formally responded on Wednesday (25th) evening to the U.S.-proposed ceasefire agreement containing 15 points, and was waiting for the other side’s response. In its response, Iran said the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must end; objective conditions must be created to ensure the war will not be repeated; war reparations must be guaranteed and addressed; and the end of the war must be implemented across all fronts and against all resistance groups that participated in this fighting throughout the region.
Egypt confirmed its participation in mediation between the U.S. and Iran. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Abdelatty said Egypt, together with Turkey and Pakistan, is helping pass messages between the U.S. and Iran, and is also participating in broader mediation efforts to help cool tensions in the region.
Schroders said there are still various possibilities for developments in the Iran conflict, making it difficult to clearly gauge the economic and financial market outlook. If there are two scenarios in which oil prices are above $120 per barrel and below $90 per barrel, the global economy would look completely different. Compared with February, the probabilities of both extreme scenarios have increased. Meanwhile, the probability of the “economic stability” scenario in the middle path with a mildly dovish tone would be lowered accordingly.
The firm said it raised the probability of the “economic overheating” scenario, given inflation pressures caused by oil price shocks. However, this assessment still remains lower than the probability implied by the market. Central banks around the world will closely watch the likelihood of “second-round impacts,” such as an increase in medium-term inflation expectations, wage growth, and disruptions to supply chains.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are ongoing—see: next page
Intra-day market:
【23:00】Trump: The Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall back. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 75 points, oil up 4%
【21:30】Trump urges Iran’s negotiators to take it seriously and promptly; Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 218 points, oil up 4%
【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Oil up 4%; after two straight days of rallies, gold falls again
【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points to 46,521; S&P futures down 29 points to 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5% to 24,241.
【14:27】Oil up 2%. New York crude oil futures at $92.41, up 2.3%. Brent crude futures at $104.68, up 2.4%. After two straight days of gold rallies, gold fell again. New York gold futures down 3% to $4,446. Spot gold down 1.7% to $4,429.
【14:19】【Private funds】Ex-Goldman CEO warns: “A fire” crisis hidden in private market; if assets are not sold, it could trigger large-scale write-downs
【13:39】【U.S. stock analysis】Dow up 300 points—analysis: The current rebound is trading a ceasefire halt; the U.S.-Iran conflict is unlikely to end in the near term; oil prices will rise again
【11:58】【Iran crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors are underestimating Iran war risk— even if “war ends announced tomorrow,” oil could still surge to $150
【11:43】【AI + Meta】Big AI investment; Meta launches a new round of layoffs affecting hundreds of people
【10:47】【U.S. dollar trend】Morgan Stanley: Rising dollar could be a “long-position trap.” The market is underestimating the negative impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy; expects the Fed to cut rates twice this year
【10:15】【U.S. rate cuts】Fed governor Milan raises rate cut expectations by 0.5 percentage points; says not due to oil prices and Iran factors
【09:28】【Gold price trend】After two straight days of gold rallies, spot gold steadies
【08:47】【Oil price trend】U.S. reportedly assesses impact of oil prices rising to a $200 per-barrel extreme scenario; White House denies
【08:29】【Iran crisis】Citrini founder: The Fed will “ignore” oil price shocks; don’t give up on rate-cut expectations. In February, it published an AI “doomsday report” to shake up the market
【08:04】【Xi-Trump meeting】The White House announces Trump will visit China on May 14 to May 15; says Xi Jinping will also return to visit Washington this year
【07:27】【Iran crisis】No sign of Iran “sending a big gift.” White House Leviott: If Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will intensify strikes. (ongoing updates)
$1 below is U.S. stock market on March 25 ===
Wednesday: Dow rises 305 points. Iran says it shot down a U.S. F-18; White House: Trump will visit China in mid-May
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Wednesday that the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be held in Beijing from May 14 to May 15. Market expectations for the new schedule imply that the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end in mid-May, and U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday.
Watch the U.S. stock market close:
The Dow’s gain widened to as much as 594 points. With war talks still uncertain, the Dow narrowed its rally to 305 points at the close, to 46,429; the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.77%. This reflects the performance of China-concept stocks, with the Golden Dragon Index up 1.86%.
In featured stocks, Tesla Optimus officially released a video and disclosed details related to Optimus, including the R&D environment, deceleration gearbox, dexterous hands, and other design elements. Tesla Optimus said Optimus will fundamentally change the economic landscape of labor and manufacturing. Musk said Optimus3 is expected to start production this summer and could achieve large-scale mass production in 2027. Tesla (U.S.: TSLA) rose 0.8%.
Amazon and Nvidia shares rose 2%. ARM, the UK chip design company, rolled out its own chips for the first time, boosting ADR share prices by 16.4%.
On Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying its air defense units shot down a U.S. F-18 fighter jet in the afternoon in the airspace over the country’s southeast. The aircraft then crashed into the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s Fars News Agency on Wednesday (25th), citing sources, said Iran would refuse the ceasefire proposal put forward by the U.S., continue attacks on Israel and the Gulf Arab states, and said that Trump’s approach to begin indirect negotiations in the current stage of the conflict lacks logic and is not feasible. It also said Iran is focusing on achieving its goals, and only when these goals are achieved can the war potentially end—not through a ceasefire. The news helped contain the slide in oil prices. New York crude futures fell as much as 6.38% before closing at $90.32, still down 2.2%. Brent crude futures briefly dropped 7% to $97.15 and closed at $102.22, down 2.2%.
Iran state media Press TV cited a report from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization that the Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again at 9:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday. The plant was previously attacked in mid-March, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the reactor itself was not damaged.
Iran reiterated that non-hostile vessels can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz as long as the passage is coordinated. Marine Traffic data shows that, as of Monday (23rd), nine ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot gold prices rose as much as 2.83% to $4,602.34. Bitcoin rose as much as 2.79% to $72,013.
Memory stocks plunged against the trend. Micron (U.S.: MU) fell 3.4%, and Sandisk (U.S.: SNDK) fell 3.5%. The main drag was a report that South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix (Korea: 000660, SK Hynix) plans to list in the U.S.
Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has filed confidential registration materials with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) within the year. SK Hynix’ spokesperson said, including issuing ADRs, several measures to enhance shareholder value are currently under review, but no final decision has been made.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are ongoing—see: next page
Intra-day market:
【22:40】Report: Iran charges “tolls” to merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil jumps 3%
【21:30】Pakistan says it is ready to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil jumps 4%
【18:00】【Iran crisis】Is there a dawn for the U.S.-Iran war? Report: Trump demands exorbitant protection money—spend $2.5 trillion to end the war
【16:00】【Iran crisis】Report: The U.S. set April 9 as the “end-of-war day”; Iran continues to deny
【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points to 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points to 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% to 24,258.
【14:00】Oil prices rebound. New York crude oil at $91.6, up nearly 4%. Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices remain soft. New York gold futures down 0.9% to $4,400. Spot gold down 1.1% to $4,357.
【14:00】【Iran crisis】DBS: Near term, gold prices may be capped by continued volatility in the Middle East conflict; maintains its year-end target of $6,250
【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers favorable terms to private equity firms—competition for the corporate AI market with a 17.5% minimum return
【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire boss Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at age 43
【12:34】【Gold price trend】After nine consecutive days of declines, gold remains soft; spot gold price on the local market between two close down through $40,000
【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut this quarter’s Switch 2 production by about 33%; production cuts may continue until April
【11:51】【Gold price trend】Gold drops more than 20% from highs to enter a bear market; Morgan Stanley: Money is flowing from safe-haven assets into equities, a positive signal for U.S. stocks
【11:19】【Iran crisis】Sanae Takaichi reportedly orders assessment of supply chains for oil-related products to cope with the crisis. The Treasury Department is reportedly seeking market opinions on potential intervention in crude oil futures
【10:36】【AI + investing】BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge the impact through stock holdings
【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】In investor documents, OpenAI says reliance on Microsoft poses risks—what other risks are there?
【08:08】【Iran crisis】Fed official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to stay flexible to address risks
【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual global developers conference WWDC26 will be held from June 8; a series of AI features is expected
【06:32】【Iran crisis】Iran’s parliament speaker denies having talked with Trump; British destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean Sea (ongoing updates)
$1 below is U.S. stock market on March 23 ===
Monday: Trump’s remarks still faced skepticism; Dow’s gains cut in half to 631 points; oil prices continue to fall, down 10%
U.S. President Trump claimed he held talks with Iran, temporarily delaying attacks on power plants. This spurred a pullback in oil prices and a rebound in stocks. The Dow once rose 1,134 points, hitting a high of 46,712. The S&P 500 once rose 2.2% to 6,651. The Nasdaq once rose 2.5% to 22,189. At the close, the gains narrowed. The Dow closed up 631 points to 46,208; the S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 6,581; the Nasdaq rose 1.4% to 21,946.
Watch the U.S. stock market close:
Oil prices fell as much as 14.1%, ending down 10% at the close. New York crude oil ended at $88.13; Brent crude ended at $100.5. Spot gold fell as much as 7%, hit a low of $4,099.18, and ended down 1.9% at $4,407.18.
Macquarie Group global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said, “We take a cautious view of this morning’s news and tweet about an imminent ‘breakthrough.’ We believe it is unlikely the war will last beyond April, because Iran’s threats may be weakened by then. But it is also unlikely that a large-scale military action will be brought to an end this week.”
Trump said on TruthSocial that over the past two days negotiations with Iran went smoothly; the U.S. held talks with Iran and instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to pause all military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, provided that the ongoing meetings and discussions succeed.
Trump then said that the two sides had reached multiple consensuses in the negotiations, and they had even discussed potential candidates for Iran’s leadership. He also said Iran agreed to give up nuclear weapons. At the same time, he said that if the talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down, bombing would continue.
But Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later cited Iranian sources saying the U.S. and Iran had not held negotiations, and there are currently no negotiations either. It also indicated that attacks are continuing and the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its pre-conflict state. Another agency, Mehr, later cited a source from Iran’s foreign ministry, saying Trump’s remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for its military plan.
The Iranian foreign ministry then also said there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should be the party at the table for dialogue, because the war was not started by Iran.
Trump then further responded, saying negotiations took place on Sunday evening (22nd), stressing that Iran urgently wants to reach an agreement, and admitting he does not know why Iranian media would refute his claims.
T. Rowe Price said that after Iran was attacked, gold briefly saw typical safe-haven gains, but the rally could not be sustained and the market quickly reinterpreted the event. Investors did not treat it as an ongoing geopolitical shock; instead, they were more inclined to see it as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real yields, strengthened the U.S. dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which are negative for gold’s performance.
Gold had already built up a substantial increase before the event, limiting the room for additional safe-haven capital inflows. It expects gold prices to continue being driven by both macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real yields and central bank policy expectations will be key, and energy prices and the U.S. dollar trend should also be watched. The firm continues to treat gold as a strategic allocation, not a short-term trading instrument. Structural demand from central banks in various countries, together with unclear policy outlooks, provides some support for gold prices, even if near-term price action may still remain volatile.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are ongoing—see: next page
Intra-day market:
【22:15】Trump: If talks between the U.S. and Iran break down, we will continue bombing operations. Dow rebounds 890 points; oil down 10%
【21:30】Trump delays the ultimatum by 5 days, saying he is holding talks with Iran. Dow rebounds 744 points; oil down 8%
【20:10】Iran denies holding talks. Dow futures’ gain narrows; oil down 5%
【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks with Iran; delays ultimatum by 5 days. Dow futures turn up 1,207 points; Nasdaq futures up 2.2%. Oil plunges 10%
【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points to 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points to 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% to 23,934.
【14:13】New York crude oil futures up 0.8% to $98.97; Brent crude futures up 0.6% to $112.85.
【14:13】【Gold price trend】Spot gold falls through $4,300, wiping out this year’s gains; local gold between two closes down another 1,000 Hong Kong dollars, retreating by 10,000 from the highs
【13:25】【Oil price trend】Goldman warns the oil market faces the “largest supply shock in history”; raises its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85
【13:15】【Iran crisis】IEA director: More than 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged.” The conflict impact equals the sum of the two oil crises in the 1970s plus the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis
【11:40】【Japanese yen trend】Yen is around 4.9 versus the Hong Kong dollar. Japanese officials again “practice their talking skills”: take all necessary measures at any time to address FX volatility
【11:21】【Iran crisis】Korea and Japan stock markets have a “Black Monday.” Korean stocks fall 5% again; launch the sixth “Sidecar” mechanism this year; Nikkei once fell more than 2,600 points
【10:56】【AI + chips】Musk: The Terafab project will land in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX co-operate
【07:30】【Iran crisis】Countdown to the ultimatum, 1 day left. Trump and Iran threaten each other to strike civilian infrastructure; oil prices fluctuate (ongoing updates)
【07:30】【Overseas week preview】Keep a close watch on the Middle East situation; watch remarks from Fed officials; U.S. March manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday
【07:30】As the Iran conflict heats up, U.S. President Trump told reporters on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” With energy prices fluctuating, the Dow’s downside widened to over 600 points at one point. U.S. long-term yields hit a six-month high, and the market’s latest expectation puts the probability of a rate hike in September at 40%. The Dow closed down 443 points to 45,577; the S&P 500 fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.01%.
Watch the U.S. stock market close:
U.S. stocks last week: for details, see U.S. stock close—Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire; Dow falls 443 points; U.S. bond yields hit a six-month high and the probability of a rate hike in September is 40%