March 27 Review

These actions are only for my own records. The risks are enormous—do not follow blindly.

Today’s trades

Morning session

Bought Guangxi Energy via staged order plate-buying

Bought Xinneng Taishan at the opening call auction

No trades in the afternoon

Current positions

Xinneng Taishan: 30%

Guangxi Energy: 40%

Cash: 30%

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Index and sentiment

Previously, I expected the stock index to bottom out, and that it would range at this level while forming a box. The overall chart action basically matches the expectation. From a macro perspective, the Middle East war has entered a stage of back-and-forth, and negotiation and troop reinforcement signals are intertwined. Global markets have also moved into sideways consolidation, waiting for the news to become clear.

Therefore, the current走势 actually aligns with the overall macro picture.

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Data summary

1, Limit-up count: 78. The number of limit-ups is in the mid-range. Compared with yesterday (39), the number of limit-ups rebounded significantly.

Limit-up trend: 28-83-84-39-78, limit-up count rising

Indicator note: below 50 is low position, 50-90 is mid-range, above 90 is high position

2, Consecutive limit-up count: 5-6-23-10-10. The consecutive limit-up count has stayed above the mid-range for two straight days.

Indicator note: below 10 is low position, 10-20 is mid-range, above 20 is high position

3, Limit-down count: 2. The limit-down count is operating in the low position. Compared with yesterday (8), the limit-down count has fallen sharply.

Limit-down trend: 71-1-1-8-2, losing-money effect converging

Indicator note: below 3 is low position, 3-6 is mid-range, above 6 is high position

4, Limit-up board sealing rate: 83%

Sealing rate trend: 65%-79%-86%-68%-83%, sealing rate rebounded to a high position

Indicator note: below 70% is low position, 70%-80% is mid-range, above 80% is high position

5, Up/down count: 4337:1073. Advancing issues rebounded to the high position.

Advancing issues trend: 305-5136-4874-916-4337

Indicator note: declining issues above 4000 is low position, advancing issues above 4000 is high position

6, Market breadth/height: 6-7-8-3-4, space height rebounding

7, Data conclusion

The data matches the bottoming-and-ranging consolidation characteristics at the moment. Advances and declines repeatedly tug at each other, and it also shows that market sentiment has not fully stabilized yet.

At a typical bottom, K-lines usually alternate red and green. Sectors will show some rotation characteristics, especially during the main-line divergence phase.

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Market main line: Power

Secondary hotspot: None

Intraday hotspot: Lithium batteries

Consecutive-limit-up leader: Huadian Liaoneng (8)

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Market timing/events:

Four-board: Big Yang node (theme rotation)

Two-board: Leader break in consecutive days + leader explosion in volume node (power follow-up gains)

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Today’s consecutive-limit-up break + reversal trading:

Auride (computing power, Northeast)

Lion Head Shares (lithium battery)

Shuhua Sports (sports industry)

Ningbo Energy (character “Neng” generation, compute-electricity coordination)

Yesterday’s consecutive-limit-up break + reversal trading performance:

None

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Sentiment cycle analysis

Major cycle position: Power cycle (defensive/hedging cycle)

Minor cycle position: Sentiment repair day

Losing-money effect: Small

Cycle height: 8

Breakout leader + power primary run-up leader: Huadian Liaoneng (8)

Power trend leader: Huadian Energy

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Chart observations

1, Follow-up gains cycle

Guangxi Energy’s second limit-up with a one-word board confirms its identity as the follow-up leader. The market has officially entered the power follow-up gains cycle. According to the classic cycle model, the follow-up gains cycle usually means the main run-up cycle is over. As the leader breaks, market height will gradually decrease until the losing-money effect expands. Once the follow-up gains end, the market will return to rotation.

From today’s chart, there’s something interesting. The “one into two” one-word board today was not the Northeast stock Huitian Relectric, which came to mind as the main pick for the “one into two,” but instead Guangxi Energy in the South. From the chart perspective, it also looks like southern power is better than northern power. Are funds preparing to go through the whole compass—east, south, west, north?

On the other hand, Yueneng Holding hit the limit-up at the end of the day. I personally think this is very important—it reflects the resilience of the power sector. We are currently in the stage where Huailing has broken and there’s no hope of a back-close. Dragging Yueneng to a limit-up is essentially telling the market that even if the power leader is broken, it can still trend; power is not over. This is very important for rebuilding confidence.

2, Lithium batteries

The active node for lithium batteries is Huailing’s volume explosion stage. It is currently positioned at four boards, proving that the funds are fully prepared—specifically to time the Huailing break node. Therefore, we can define lithium batteries as the product of the power main line divergence stage. They are both in the new energy category, and can continue the follow-up gains gap after power. This also helps prevent other sectors from siphoning funds. So, we can view the lithium battery sector as a branch of the power sector.

3, Go all the way with power

After Zijin Mining (silver-gold) broke 8, there was an A-kill. After Huailing broke 8, it touched 9; the board then traded sideways after the break. This cycle is stronger than the sector’s prior super cycle (for nonferrous metals). Currently, the leader is still consolidating horizontally. The new consecutive board, Xinneng Taishan, opened with a one-word board and then quickly upgraded to a second board; throughout the day, the order for the close remained stable. Upgrading to 5 boards is highly likely. In the low positions, Guangxi Energy’s one-word board for “one into two” upgraded as well. Although it saw heavy volume, overall it stayed strong. Yueneng Holding hit the limit-up, giving confidence back to the broken leader.

Power is not over. Continue to do the main line. Going forward, keep firmly sticking to the power main line without loosening—any other sector is just trash/miscellaneous.

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Personal holdings

Today someone DMed me and said I’m bragging. It’s normal, because most people wouldn’t be able to buy these two stocks today. I bought both at once, so getting scolded is fair.

Xinneng Taishan

“Qiang” generation. In the “one into two” stage, the largest sell order/limit order is also from the “Neng” generation category, i.e., it has “Neng” in its lineage. Guangxi cards out Jinxun Power, proving that the “Neng” generation is an added positive. Meanwhile, Hunan’s opening call auction saw a slump. With Xinneng Taishan assisting on a one-word board, it will most likely advance. I bought it at the call auction.

Based on the leader’s 8-board height, and assuming Huailing does not continue to back-close with limit-up, I will first set expectations for a 6-board outcome.

Guangxi Energy

Expectation: Huitian and Jinxun are one-word boards today, and Guangxi had a huge long leg yesterday and also leaked orders. According to reason, today’s call auction should be lower than these two. But on 915 it had the biggest sealing order of 2 billion+; I observed and then followed with placing orders. At around 920, the sealing order dropped to 200 million+; while Jinxun and Huitian were clearly below expectations and had no big sealing orders. Therefore, I predicted Guangxi’s positioning worked successfully and there was no cancellation of orders.

Actually, during the early-morning operation write-up, the trade hadn’t executed yet. At that time, the trading volume was already 200 million+. L2 showed my order was already very close, so I directly wrote that it executed.

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Yesterday’s trading plan—post-trade review

Plan 1: 1, Power follow-up gains

All four stocks are potential follow-up gain candidates: Guangxi Energy, Jinxun Power, Huitian Relectric, and Shenzhen Energy A. I gave added positives: low-priced stocks, small market cap, names that include regional references, names with “Neng,” and names with “Electric/Power” character.

The conditions above clearly indicate that the character “Neng” is an added positive. Pick two out of four—50% probability of buying into a limit-up.

1, Jinxun Power

Low-priced stock; the float is somewhat large; one-word board was expected. The name has regional references and includes the “Electric/Power” character.

The call auction was not a one-word board—this was below expectation. Although it did advance today, it showed obvious divergence and heavy volume, so it wasn’t the preferred choice.

2, Huitian Relectric

Small-cap low-priced stock; one-word board expected. Name includes “Electric/Power,” and it’s a local Northeast stock.

The expectation was to have the largest sealing order at the same position, but the call auction sealing order was clearly lower than Guangxi; at one point it even withdrew down to only a few tens of millions. Plus, Liaoning Energy reduced its holdings and stabbed from behind, seriously underperforming expectations.

3, Guangxi Energy

Low-priced stock; larger float; there were leaked orders near the close, and the chart trend accelerated. Name has regional references and includes the “Neng” character.

Yesterday’s huge long leg volume-expanded board; leaked orders near the close. Today, at the same position, it had the largest sealing order and exceeded expectations. First choice.

4, Shenzhen Energy A

Small-cap stock; the stock price is average; there are leaked orders near the close. Name has regional references and includes the “Electric/Power” character. With Shunfa Shares down limit, Shaoneng Shares with a big bearish candle. From the regional angle, it’s a negative factor.

It opened sharply below the opening auction level, which was seriously below expectations. Among the four, it had the weakest strength, so it wasn’t considered.

2, Back-close/continuation expectation: Liaoning Energy

Two conditions: Huitian Relectric had a large order and a one-word board; it had a small red open on its own. Huitian was below expectation; it announced a reduction in holdings last night, stabbing from behind. It opened with a deep water opening today, so I directly gave up—no buy point.

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Tomorrow’s trading plan

Since I’m sticking to the power main line without letting go, then just continue main-line trades at the end-of-day.

The anchor point is: the leader Huailing does not disappoint feedback—if it can keep staying red, there will be expectations for follow-up gains.

1, Follow-up leader—picking up a leak: Guangxi Energy

This stock is the authentic power of Huailing—volume-expansion break board follow-up node. Today it saw volume reach 280 million, and during the trading session it also continuously leaked orders. On Monday, there is a good probability of getting a turnover/picking-up chance.

In terms of operations, anchor on Huailing and do a volume-expansion re-close. As long as Huailing does not have negative feedback, and no extreme negative feedback appears in the power sector, then the probability of it continuing to deliver follow-up gains is relatively high.

2, “Neng”-generation positioning: Xinneng Taishan (overnight)

“Qiang/Neng”-generation positioning, Jiangsu positioning. On Monday, whether “Neng”-generation stocks or Jiangsu local stocks appear as one-word boards can be treated as its boost.

The individual stock is currently strong, and the sector’s fermentation is also very strong. There is a possibility it opens as a one-word board on Monday, so we may need to take it overnight.

It also has another scenario: with an extremely strong one-word board, it drives Huailing to back-close; the resonance between the new and old leaders boosts market space. Its own upside expectation also increases.

3, Leader back-close: Huadian Liaoneng (low buy)

If Xinneng Taishan, Guangxi Energy, and any additional “Neng”-generation one-word boards appear, and Liaoning Energy stops falling, Huadian Energy and Yueneng Holding turn red in the end; if power shows strong sector return, then it has a probability of back-closing.

The current K-line makes me think of Tongda Power back then. At that time, it also repeatedly appeared with one-word boards in the low position. After it broke the board, it consecutively collected two doji candles; on the third day, it completed the back-close.

We’ll talk about this stock only after its conditions are complete. Don’t force it, especially if we haven’t seen clear evidence of sector returns.

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Notes

Please read the article carefully. If the content has already been covered in the post-trade review, don’t ask again—I won’t answer.

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Disclaimer

The above targets are not recommendations. They are only for post-trade review. Buying and selling is your own decision—take all risks!

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Finally, please give everyone more likes and support with tips!