Hong Kong real estate market continues to be "hot," with multiple institutions raising their forecasts for 2026

Source: Securities Times Network Author: Wu Jiaming

Hong Kong’s real estate market has significantly warmed up after two years of “cooling down,” gradually emerging from the downturn in 2025. Since the beginning of 2026, market enthusiasm remains, and industry experts are generally optimistic about Hong Kong’s housing market prospects in 2026, with many institutions adjusting their expectations.

Public market information shows that JPMorgan recently raised its forecast for Hong Kong property price growth in 2026 from the original 5-7% to 10-15%, and expects prices to rise another approximately 5% in 2027. The bank believes that Hong Kong’s real estate industry has moved from the “recovery initial stage” into the “expansion phase.”

Goldman Sachs has also upgraded its forecast for Hong Kong property prices this year, raising the growth estimate from 5% to 12%. Goldman Sachs believes that strong rental growth in Hong Kong, coupled with declining mortgage rates, may encourage more people to “rent-to-buy.” Additionally, since the removal of market-restrictive measures at the start of fiscal year 2024, transaction costs have decreased, potentially stimulating investment demand.

Entering 2026, news of continued “hot sales” in Hong Kong’s property market persists. On February 21, Yingke Dayan Properties and Capital Strategy Properties sold five units at the Hong Kong Mid-Levels luxury project Yaying Peak through bidding, netting nearly HKD 100 million in a single day. According to data from the Hong Kong SAR Government Land Registry, the total number of property transaction registrations (including residential, parking spaces, and commercial properties) in Hong Kong in 2025 reached 80,702, a four-year high. Among these, residential property transactions totaled 62,832, with a total value of HKD 519.83 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 18.3% and 14.4%, respectively.

Cen Songqian, an analyst at Midland Realty, stated that the start of the interest rate cut cycle, ongoing economic growth, and favorable policies will continue to drive the market. Hong Kong property prices have been rising steadily, reflecting a bottoming out and rebound, with the upward trend expected to continue this year. In the luxury property market, properties worth over HKD 100 million have become key assets for high-net-worth individuals. Huang Jianye, chairman of the Midland Group, said that the Hong Kong housing market has improved, with the residential sector beginning to rebound. The Hong Kong SAR government may not need to introduce new measures to further stimulate the residential market.

In addition to rising prices, Chen Yongjie, Vice Chairman and President of Residential at Centaline Property Asia-Pacific, predicts that rental prices in Hong Kong will also continue to rise in 2026, creating a rare “rental price increase across the board” in recent years. However, the growth in property prices is expected to outpace rent increases, and as more people buy homes, rental demand may decline accordingly. It is estimated that rental prices will increase by 5% throughout the year, approaching the growth rate seen in 2025.

(Edited by: Wen Jing)

Keywords: Housing Market