After 9 months of consecutive declines, Shanghai's secondhand home prices have begun to rise, with experts saying the homebuying window is gradually closing.

Image Source: TuChong Creative

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market for January–February 2026 and the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February.

Data shows that in the first two months of this year, the sales area of new commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, down 13.5% year-on-year; among which, residential sales area decreased by 15.9%. The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 8.186 billion yuan, down 20.2%; among which, residential sales revenue declined by 21.8%. At the end of February, the pending sale area of commercial housing was 79.998 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%.

Regarding housing prices, in February, the month-on-month decline of the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 cities continued to narrow, and year-on-year, prices decreased. The number of cities where the new commercial residential sales prices increased or remained flat month-on-month increased compared to the previous month.

In an interview with Times Weekly, Zhang Bo, Director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said that the February housing price data already sent clear positive signals, and the market has shown signs of structural recovery, with core first- and second-tier cities’ improved products becoming the main line of recovery. This structural recovery reflects an increasing match between supply and demand, further strengthening the market’s stable and positive trend, and a “small spring” is worth looking forward to.

Additionally, Yan Yuejin, Deputy Director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that at the end of February, the nationwide pending sale area of commercial housing increased by 0.1% year-on-year. This is the smallest growth rate since July 2021 and carries important signaling significance. The change in this indicator is basically consistent with the trend of the second-hand housing price index—after entering a continuous decline in September 2021, it is now also showing a narrowing of the decline.

“The narrowing of the growth rate of pending sale area essentially reflects a relief in inventory pressure. In simple terms, the available housing supply on the market has relatively decreased, and the supply-demand relationship is gradually balancing. This is another key positive signal since the major change in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market in 2023. Coupled with the reduction in second-hand housing listings, it can be judged that the market’s supply-side adjustment has been relatively sufficient.”

Among the 70 cities, Shanghai’s new housing prices turned from flat to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%; in terms of second-hand residential properties, Shanghai’s housing prices also increased by 0.2% month-on-month, ending a nine-month streak of month-on-month declines.

Regarding this, Lu Wenxi, Senior Analyst at Centaline Property Shanghai, believes that with the approaching traditional peak sales season of “March to April,” combined with the favorable policies of the “Shanghai Seven Articles,” the small spring market in Shanghai has already begun early. The rigid and improved demand groups should not continue to wait and miss the opportunity.

“Supported by the ‘Shanghai Seven Articles,’ the new housing prices in Shanghai increased by 0.2% month-on-month.”

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in February, the sales prices of new commercial residential properties in first-tier cities remained flat after a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in the previous month; in second- and third-tier cities, the prices decreased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points.

Year-on-year, the sales prices of new commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 2.2%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month; in second- and third-tier cities, the declines were 3.1% and 4.0%, respectively, with the decline widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points.

Image Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Zhang Bo pointed out that from the above data, the recovery of housing prices in first-tier cities is already clear. The housing price index, which decreased by 0.3% month-on-month in January, stabilized in February, breaking the previous nine-month downward trend.

Specifically, among the four first-tier cities, there is still some differentiation. Beijing and Shanghai’s new housing prices returned to growth, both increasing by 0.2% month-on-month; Guangzhou remained flat, ending a 13-month continuous decline since January 2025; Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, with a narrower decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to last month.

Zhang Bo believes that the stabilization of first-tier city new housing prices is mainly driven by policy easing, especially the targeted relaxation of policies in Beijing and Shanghai, which has formed a supportive force, effectively activating rigid and improved demand. The performance of large units over 144 square meters in these cities further confirms that improved demand supports prices.

Taking Shanghai as an example, on February 25, the Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee and four other departments issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City’s Real Estate Policies,” involving seven measures such as reducing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund policies, and improving property tax policies, collectively known as the “Shanghai Seven Articles.”

According to Times Weekly, after the release of the “Shanghai Seven Articles,” the local new housing market experienced a rare surge, with major developers releasing positive sales reports. On the first working day after the policy was implemented, China Resources Land Shanghai’s sales exceeded 320 million yuan, with visitor volume at Bund Riverside Mansion increasing by over 50%, and nearly 200 million yuan in sales for a single project.

During the first weekend after the policy’s implementation, market transactions reached a peak. China Merchants Shekou announced that its total sales during the first weekend exceeded 415 million yuan; Poly Developments in Shanghai launched multiple projects, with the flagship Poly Expo Tianyue earning 250 million yuan in just two days; additionally, the luxury project Anlan in Xuhui Binjiang achieved over 630 million yuan in two days.

Besides the increased market activity, the change in the transaction structure of the new housing market is also noteworthy.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that according to Shanghai Centaline Data, in February, the transaction area of new commercial residential properties in Shanghai was 160,000 square meters. Among the top ten new residential transactions in February, four projects with mid- to low-price units in the “3-figure” range increased compared to January, indicating that affordable housing is becoming a stable support for the market.

Second-hand housing ended a nine-month decline, with experts saying the home-buying window is gradually closing

Data shows that in January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; in second- and third-tier cities, the declines were 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points.

Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 7.6%, the same as last month; in second-tier cities, the decline was 6.2%, also unchanged; in third-tier cities, the decline widened to 6.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

Image Source: National Bureau of Statistics

At the city level, in February, only Beijing and Shanghai saw second-hand housing prices increase month-on-month. Shanghai’s prices rose by 0.2%, ending a nine-month decline.

Regarding the rise in second-hand housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai, Yan Yuejin believes that on one hand, these cities experienced deep price adjustments, with some properties falling over 40% from their peak; on the other hand, this is also due to the positive release of policy effects. As opportunities to buy second-hand homes increase, stable volume naturally drives prices higher, setting a good example for the national market.

Specifically, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai in February experienced a typical slowdown. Data from online real estate shows that approximately 10,200 second-hand homes (including commercial) were sold in Shanghai in February, a 49.74% decrease month-on-month.

However, after the “Shanghai Seven Articles” were implemented on February 25, the previously sluggish second-hand market experienced a strong reversal at the end of the month. Daily transactions immediately exceeded 500 units and steadily increased, reaching 839 units at the end of the month.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that compared to previous years’ recovery periods of 1–2 weeks after the holiday, this year, with strong policy support, the market skipped the usual pause and rebounded much faster than expected. He believes that the February rebound is just the beginning of a small spring, and the Shanghai second-hand market will fully explode in March, with the benefits of the new policies fully realized.

Data from online real estate shows that from March 9 to 15, Shanghai transacted a total of 7,233 second-hand homes, the highest weekly total in nearly five years. As of March 15, the total second-hand transactions (including commercial) in Shanghai for March had reached 13,955 units.

Lu Wenxi believes that the small spring in Shanghai’s real estate market has been established, and subsequent transaction volumes are expected to surpass last year’s record, with the home-buying window gradually closing.

He also noted that behind the steady release of transaction volume, second-hand housing prices are expected to quickly bottom out. Although the number of second-hand listings in Shanghai has slightly increased seasonally, the growth rate is much lower than last year’s same period. Owners are more willing to adjust asking prices, and market transaction prices remain firm, with bargaining space narrowing. Some high-quality properties even have no room for negotiation.