"El Niño" is coming—will it be "super hot" this year?

Recently, topics such as “2023 and 2024 may become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon” have attracted widespread attention. Many media outlets report that multiple research institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño could occur later this year, disrupting global climate. This may not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, leading to record-high temperatures this summer and next summer.

In response to these societal concerns, reporters interviewed experts from the National Climate Center for analysis.

It is too early to definitively say that a “super El Niño” will occur this year

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from various domestic and international climate models, the National Climate Center’s analysis indicates that the La Niña state is nearing its end and will soon transition to a neutral state. The sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific are expected to continue rising, and an El Niño condition may develop in the late spring.

Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, explained that, historically, there is about a one-third chance that an El Niño will develop in the year following the end of La Niña. Different climate models worldwide predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with the earliest possible in April and the latest in late summer or early autumn. Predictions differ significantly among models.

For example: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April; Australia forecasts May; Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June; U.S. experts’ voting suggests July to September.

Overall, there is a higher likelihood of El Niño developing in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific in the second half of this year, but it is still too early to accurately predict its specific formation time and overall strength. Currently, results from multiple international climate prediction models still show significant discrepancies, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Experts advise: Approach climate forecast information rationally

Chen Lijuan, chief expert of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, pointed out that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the extent of warming and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of each El Niño, requiring further monitoring and assessment.

Currently, discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context. Experts recommend the public:

• Approach forecast information rationally, especially since the specific timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño still require dynamic monitoring and prediction;

• Pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative agencies rather than extreme statements based on single points in time;

• Be proactive in weather warnings and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably, and urban managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation.

Additional News Highlights

ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is a natural climate variability phenomenon involving coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillations in the tropical Pacific, with a cycle of approximately 3 to 7 years. It is typically characterized by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the tropical central and eastern Pacific, indicating the phase of ENSO.

• If the 3-month running average SST anomaly remains above 0.5°C for five months, it indicates a warm phase, called El Niño;
• If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it indicates a cold phase, called La Niña;
• If the SST anomaly fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

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