Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | How to Understand the Four "Growth Points" and Two "Unconventional" Strategies?

Everyday Economic News Reporter | Zhang Hong Everyday Economic News Editor | Huang Bowen

On March 13, the “Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outline”) was publicly released.

Noticing from the “Outline,” there are four “growth points” and two “extraordinary measures.”

What are the potential “growth points” in the next five years? What are the development paths? How should we understand “unconventional layouts”? What are the possible ways to implement “extraordinary measures”? The reporter conducted interviews on these topics.

“Growth Point” ①

The “Outline” proposes focusing on key areas leading future development, building a comprehensive future industry cultivation system, and promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication, among others, as new economic growth points.

Many of these fields are currently in laboratories or early demonstration stages. What are the critical crossing points from “technological breakthroughs” to “industrial explosion” in the next five years?

Wan Zhe, Professor at Beijing Normal University and researcher at the Belt and Road Institute: The core crossing point is technological maturity, while cost reduction is key to industrialization. Specifically, there are five points:

First, achieve breakthroughs in engineering and pilot transformation. The main challenge is solving the pain points where laboratory achievements cannot be scaled to production lines. Breakthrough paths include establishing verification centers and public pilot platforms, overcoming bottlenecks from laboratory samples to large-scale products, and focusing on process stability, safety, and product consistency to significantly improve product completion. This process is essentially a critical leap from “1 to 10.”

Second, realize scenario-based validation and closed-loop business models. This involves leveraging scenarios with rigid demand to drive technology, supported by mechanisms like government procurement to provide compensation, and opening up scenarios to create space for trial, error, and iteration of new technologies. Based on this, explore profitable and replicable business models. The ultimate goal is to break free from reliance on policy subsidies, forming a positive cycle where scenario validation and business models promote each other, thereby accelerating application adoption.

Third, achieve autonomous control of the entire industry chain and build ecological systems. Upstream, focus on overcoming bottlenecks in core components, key materials, and high-end equipment; downstream, work to reduce overall industry chain costs, leverage leading enterprises to drive, cultivate specialized and innovative companies, and form supporting systems and collaborative ecosystems to address the problem of isolated breakthroughs without a complete industry chain.

Fourth, improve standards and regulatory mechanisms. This includes technical standards, product standards, safety standards, and also attention to issues like computer ethics and AI ethics, establishing an inclusive yet cautious regulatory model. Future industries such as brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology will pose new challenges to social safety and ethics globally, requiring the development of new standards and regulatory rules to ensure large-scale promotion with legal and institutional safeguards.

Fifth, build a financial support system, develop long-term capital, and improve risk control and sharing mechanisms. Since future industries generally have long cycles, high investment, and high risks, there is a mismatch with traditional short-term profit-driven investments. While government-guided funds have played guiding roles, there is still a need to introduce long-term capital, expand new services and financing channels like intellectual property financing, optimize equity structures, and establish investment, financing, and risk management systems suited to future industry characteristics. The investment philosophy should emphasize “early investment, small-scale, hard technology, and soft strength,” and improve mechanisms for sharing R&D risks.

Which subfields are most likely to achieve scale output first?

Wan Zhe: Based on industry maturity, biomanufacturing is expected to be the first to explode. Currently, China accounts for over 70% of global bioprocessing product output, with many technologies entering initial commercialization stages. Looking ahead, fields driven by synthetic biology, such as pharmaceuticals and bio-feed protein, may rapidly form industrial outbreaks.

The new energy storage industry already has a solid foundation for industrialization. By the end of 2024, China’s newly built and operational energy storage projects will account for over 40% of the global installed capacity, ranking first in the world.

In hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy will develop more rapidly at scale, including green hydrogen production and industrial applications, potentially reaching at least hundreds of billions in output value. Large-scale application of nuclear fusion may still require more time.

In embodied intelligence, consumer robots and humanoid robots are currently highly focused, but industrial scenarios will be the first to realize deployment. According to research, industrial embodied intelligent robots already have a commercial foundation. If core components can be domestically produced within five years to reduce costs, and algorithms improve in generalization, such robots could achieve large-scale deployment in industrial, logistics, and security fields, with relatively mature conditions.

Quantum technology is still in pilot stages, and large-scale application will take time. It is expected that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, there will be a transition from pilot to preparatory promotion.

Brain-computer interfaces face multiple constraints, including technical, ethical, and regulatory issues, but they have potential in medical rehabilitation. Based on international experience, the earliest application of brain-computer interfaces is in medical rehabilitation, especially in replacing functions for limb disabilities, with certain market prospects. Future progress in some mature niche markets is possible, but forming a substantial commercial scale will still take time.

6G (sixth-generation mobile communication) will mainly be in the foundational stage during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” including technology R&D and standard setting, with large-scale terminal applications expected to take longer.

In the field of brain-computer interfaces, technical, ethical, and compliance constraints exist, but there is potential for deployment in medical rehabilitation. The earliest application is in medical recovery, especially for limb disabilities, with some market prospects. However, a good commercial scale will still require more time.

The “15th Five-Year Plan” will see quantum technology in the pilot stage, with large-scale application still needing time. It is expected to move from pilot to promotion readiness during this period.

In the “15th Five-Year Plan,” 6G will mainly focus on laying the groundwork, including technology development and standard formulation, with large-scale terminal applications expected to take longer.

“Growth Point” ②

The “Outline” proposes focusing on national health, smart elderly care, cultural tourism, and home services to cultivate a batch of new growth points in the service sector.

“Growth Point” ③

The “Outline” emphasizes expanding service consumption by relaxing market access and integrating business formats, cultivating new growth points in service consumption.

What is the ultimate goal of cultivating new growth points in the service sector?

Wan Zhe: First, upgrade basic needs—this is the core foundation. It is necessary to closely follow demographic changes, especially aging and declining birthrates, and adapt to structural shifts in residents’ demands.

Second, drive consumption upgrading. Residents’ needs are shifting from “having” to “being good”—a clear trend. Focus areas include smart elderly care, cultural tourism, national health, and home services, which are also current pain points in people’s livelihoods. The key is to address the structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and shortage of high-end quality supply, filling gaps in inclusive services and meeting residents’ upgraded, diverse, and high-quality demands, providing richer and more convenient life services to achieve a positive resonance between benefiting people’s livelihoods and promoting development.

Third, expand domestic demand as an engine. Currently, residents’ service consumption accounts for nearly half of total consumption, becoming a core driver of growth. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for services has been adjusted this year, and relevant indicators are expected to rebound. The growth of the service sector related to people’s livelihoods can unleash trillions in consumption potential, which is crucial for smoothing the domestic cycle, establishing a long-term mechanism for expanding demand, and building a new development pattern.

Fourth, promote industry integration and business format innovation. Digital transformation and new forms of smart economy are continuously breaking down industry barriers and boundaries. Future efforts should further deepen industry integration across sectors like culture, tourism, sports, commerce, healthcare, elderly care, and digital services, creating a comprehensive service system covering the entire lifecycle. This includes smart services, community-embedded services, and other forms, achieving full coverage over time, extending into lower-tier markets, and empowering with digital and intelligent technologies to expand the value boundary of the service industry, improve efficiency and added value, and cultivate the service sector as a new growth pole.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: It is necessary to relax market access, eliminate hidden barriers like “glass doors” in the service industry, encourage social capital to enter fields like elderly care, medical services, cultural tourism, and childcare, and activate diverse business entities. Improve mechanisms such as government procurement of services, public-private partnerships, and private assistance, expand high-level opening-up of the service sector, and introduce advanced international service models and resources. Support service enterprises to grow stronger, while also fostering small and micro enterprises, and cultivating leading companies.

Deepen business format integration and innovation, empower service upgrades through digitalization, and expand service scenarios. Develop new formats like internet healthcare, smart elderly care, digital cultural tourism, and instant retail, promote cross-sector integration, and cover full lifecycle and market levels.

Optimize supply structure, address supply-demand gaps, especially expand inclusive service supply, and promote high-quality services in areas like elderly care, children, and primary healthcare.

Advance standardization and branding, improve quality assurance, certification systems, and build a credit system for the service industry, enhancing consumer safety, trust, and satisfaction.

Improve policy support, innovate development models, and provide support in land use, financing, talent, tax relief, and fiscal subsidies, creating a fair and orderly market environment.

“Growth Point” ④

The “Outline” proposes cultivating new growth points in mid-to-high-end consumption, strengthening traditional brands and national trendy brands, developing peripheral derivative products, and actively promoting the “first launch economy.”

Where is the focus for cultivating new mid-to-high-end consumption?

Wan Zhe: First, align with the core trend of consumption upgrading. China has a huge market advantage, with the largest population and the world’s largest middle-income group. It is essential to meet the demands for quality, branding, culture, and experience, and to address the mismatch between supply and demand at the mid-to-high end, promoting spillover and return of consumption, and satisfying personalized, diversified, and high-end consumer needs with high-quality supply.

Second, promote Chinese brands to upgrade. Upgrading supply is the core approach, using traditional brands and trendy domestic brands as leverage, pushing from “Made in China” to “Created in China” and “Intelligent Manufacturing,” and advancing toward global innovation centers and Chinese brands crossing over. Focus on enhancing the brand premium of domestic brands, strengthening cultural connotations and design capabilities, and cultivating internationally competitive Chinese consumer brands to support growth in mid-to-high-end consumption.

Third, build a virtuous cycle of supply and demand. Upgrading supply and demand should promote each other. High-end consumer demand can drive upstream manufacturing and service industries to extend to higher value chains, promoting product innovation, technological upgrades, and business model innovation. This creates a high-level dynamic balance of “new demand leading new supply, and new supply creating new demand,” driving industry and value chain upgrades.

Fourth, cultivate new consumption formats and scenarios. Develop new formats like first-launch economy, first-store economy, and peripheral derivative products, stimulating young consumers and expanding consumption. Promote the construction of international consumer center cities to enhance China’s global influence in the consumer market. Facilitate visa policies for foreigners in China to attract global consumers, forming a balanced pattern of “bringing in” and “going out” in consumption.

What are the paths for cultivation?

Wan Zhe: Implement brand enhancement initiatives, strengthen the domestic brand matrix, accelerate the cultivation of Chinese consumer brands, and improve product quality and brand premium.

Innovate consumption formats and scenarios, develop first-launch and first-store economies, promote IP commercialization, peripheral derivatives, and customized experiential consumption, and encourage green and digital consumption to stimulate new consumption vitality.

Leverage technological empowerment, using AI and big data to improve supply-demand matching, develop flexible production, and enable personalized, efficient, low-cost customization to better meet mid-to-high-end consumer needs.

Optimize consumption infrastructure and environment, upgrade traditional commercial districts, strengthen intellectual property protection, original design, and trademark protection, improve after-sales service and consumer rights mechanisms, and create a safe and trustworthy consumption environment.

Promote domestic and international market linkage, enhance the global influence of the domestic market, align with international high standards, attract high-quality global consumption resources, support Chinese brands to go global, and expand global marketing networks.