Citigroup Cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecasts as U.S. Crypto Legislation Stalls

Citigroup C +1.57% ▲ is pulling back on its aggressive crypto forecasts as the reality of Washington’s slow-moving lawmaking sets in. On Tuesday, the Wall Street brokerage lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price (BTC-USD) forecast to $112,000 from its previous estimate of $143,000. The bank also trimmed its Ethereum (ETH-USD) target to $3,175, down from $4,304. These changes reflect a shift in mood at the bank, as analysts realize that the crypto-friendly laws many expected to pass quickly are now facing significant delays.

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Slow Legislative Progress Cools Market Hopes

The main reason for Citigroup’s caution is the gridlock in the U.S. Senate. Earlier this year, investors were betting that a wave of new crypto laws would make it easier for big institutions to buy digital assets. However, the Senate Banking Committee has repeatedly delayed votes on key bills. These delays are cooling down the regulatory hype that helped push Bitcoin to its October highs of $126,000. Citi analysts now believe that without these laws, Bitcoin will rely more on steady ETF flows rather than a sudden burst of new adoption.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is sitting at $74,342.

Ethereum Faces a Steeper Cut

Ethereum took a harder hit in Citigroup’s new report. The bank lowered its target by over 26%, dropping it to $3,175. Analysts noted that Ethereum has struggled to keep up with Bitcoin’s momentum this year. While Bitcoin is seen as a digital gold that people buy for safety, Ethereum is viewed more as a tech platform. Because the legislation to regulate decentralized finance (DeFi) is currently stuck, the bank expects Ethereum to face a valuation ceiling until the rules for using the network become clearer.

Currently, Ethereum’s price is sitting at $2,329.

Major Banks Adjust Their 2026 Crypto Portfolios

Several Wall Street banks are also re-evaluating their 2026 portfolios. Citi still expects about $15 billion to flow into Bitcoin ETFs over the next year, but they warn that these flows will only happen if the news stays positive. The bank’s bear case scenario is even more cautious, suggesting that if a recession hits or if the Iran conflict worsens energy prices, Bitcoin could even fall back toward the $78,000 range.

Adding to the pressure is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on March 18. Citigroup expects the Fed to keep interest rates steady, which usually makes it harder for risky assets like crypto to rally. The bank’s analysts noted that “higher for longer” interest rates are making investors more picky about where they put their money. For the time being, Citigroup suggests that investors should focus on “statistical measures of value” rather than the far-fetched price targets that dominated the start of the year.

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