Morgan Stanley Raises European Natural Gas Price Outlook as Europe Needs to Replenish LNG

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-17T08:53:41+00:00

Morgan Stanley raised its European natural gas price forecast, expecting $23 in the second quarter, $19 in the third quarter, and $12 in the fourth quarter. Analysts noted that if Qatar halts production, it would cause supply shortages, with summer prices facing upward risks and potentially surpassing €100 per megawatt-hour.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-17 08:53:41

Abstract generation in progress

Morgan Stanley raises its price forecasts for European natural gas for the remainder of the year, citing the region’s need to attract LNG backflows during the summer to replenish inventories.

In a report on March 12, analysts including Martin Ratz stated:

The bank expects second-quarter prices at $23 per million British thermal units, up from previous expectations of $16;

Third-quarter forecasts are at $19, up from $10;

Fourth-quarter forecasts are at $12, up from $9.

The bank also raised its price expectations for 2027.

Assuming Qatar halts production for at least one month, this would reduce supply by 8 million tons and fully offset the previously expected oversupply in 2026.

The bank incorporated a risk premium into its forecasts, indicating that summer natural gas prices are significantly skewed toward upside risks.

“If Ras Laffan port halts operations for several months, it could trigger a supply crunch similar to 2022,” and Dutch TTF natural gas prices could break through €100 per megawatt-hour.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.